USAU Ranking Approximations: Will Ohio State Be The ‘Last Bid’ Winner?

Is this how the final allocation will look?

April 4, 2016 by Charlie Eisenhood and Cody Mills in Analysis with 0 comments

Ultiworld’s Cody Mills has put together a statistical tool to approximate the USA Ultimate rankings by using publicly available score data and applying the algorithm that USA Ultimate uses to run their numbers. While the results below are unofficial and could include some scores which are liable to be altered or removed from the official rankings, they are a good representation of the what the current rankings would look like.

Throughout the remainder of the college season, we will be running this USAU ranking approximation and, later, applying different algorithms and/or ranking methods to test possible alternatives to the existing algorithm.

For more information about the USA Ultimate algorithm, ranking system, and some of its perceived flaws, see this FAQ from last year.

Men’s Division

The rankings below include only teams with at least ten sanctioned games.

Implied Bid Allocation

Atlantic Coast: 2 bids
Great Lakes: 1 bid
Metro East: 1 bid
New England: 2 bids
North Central: 3 bids
Northwest: 4 bids
Ohio Valley: 2 bids (+1)
South Central: 2 bids (-1)
Southeast: 2 bids
Southwest: 1 bid

Discussion

As the dust settles on a wacky weekend at Huck Finn, it looks — for now — that Ohio State may emerge as the victor, earning a second bid for the Ohio Valley after a couple of big blowouts over last week’s first-out Cincinnati and a pair of wins over Colorado State. The Ohio Valley region may want to wait to celebrate, however, as there are many scenarios which could see Ohio State drop from the spot as teams and games get dropped from the rankings, scores are modified, and other changes take place before USA Ultimate finalizes the bid scenario.

Florida State sits just outside the cutoff at #19, tantalizingly close to a third bid for the Southeast. If the results hold and the Southeast is left wanting, the region should have host of the most exciting Regional tournaments in years.

The Southwest again stares at a one bid year after Cal Poly SLO struggled in St. Louis this weekend. And a perennial Nationals team will be left at home in the South Central after the region is likely to land just two bids this year.

Women’s Division

The rankings below include only team with at least ten sanctioned games.

Implied Bid Allocation

Atlantic Coast: 1 bid
Great Lakes: 1 bid
Metro East: 1 bid
New England: 1 bid
North Central: 1 bid
Northwest: 5 bids
Ohio Valley: 2 bids
South Central: 3 bids
Southeast: 1 bid
Southwest: 4 bids

Discussion

No changes from last week, which is no surprise given that most top teams concluded their regular seasons over the last two weekends. The Southwest will be quite pleased with four bids, but they were so close to landing five.

The North Central should be exciting with just one bid and multiple teams in the hunt. New England’s lone bid should also be up in the air with Dartmouth struggling through much of the regular season.