USAU Approximated Club Rankings: A Final Look

The official final rankings should be out later today.

August 24, 2016 by Charlie Eisenhood and Cody Mills in Analysis with 2 comments

Ultiworld’s Cody Mills has put together a statistical tool to approximate the USA Ultimate rankings by using publicly available score data and applying the algorithm that USA Ultimate uses to run their numbers. While the results below are unofficial and could include some scores which are liable to be altered or removed from the official rankings, they are a good representation of the what the current rankings would look like.

Throughout the remainder of the club season, we will be running this USAU ranking approximation and, later, possibly applying different algorithms and/or ranking methods to test alternatives to the existing algorithm.

For more information about the USA Ultimate algorithm, ranking system, and some of its perceived flaws, see this FAQ from last year.

Men’s Division

Implied Bid Allocation

Great Lakes: 2 bids
Mid-Atlantic: 2 bids
Northeast: 3 bids
Northwest: 2 bids
North Central: 2 bids
South Central: 3 bids
Southeast: 1 bid
Southwest: 1 bid

Discussion

Although Prairie Fire did almost everything they could with a stellar weekend at the Pro Flight Finale, they couldn’t crack the top 16 and the overall bid allocation appears that it will remain the same after the final weekend of the regular season. Even if score changes alter the above rankings in the final USAU edition of the rankings due later today, Sub Zero (another North Central team) sits on the bubble, meaning a swap wouldn’t affect allocation.

Perhaps the biggest news from this week is that Sockeye plummeted in the rankings after a very rough PFF and will surely have a tougher road at Nationals now.

Two one bid regions will be left smarting — the Southeast and Southwest. In the former, three perennial qualifiers — Ring of Fire, Florida United, and Chain Lightning — will have to duke it out for the lone bid. In the latter, the SoCal Condors’ plan to start building towards a Worlds qualification may have to wait a year unless they can unseat Revolver with a shock upset at Regionals.

The South Central is flush with bids after H.I.P. continued their strong play at the Bro Flight Finale and will easily earn a third bid for the region. They’ll get their first true test of the year at Regionals when they face off against powerhouses Johnny Bravo and Doublewide. And perhaps the door cracked open for a sleeper team like Inception to steal a bid.

Mixed Division

Implied Bid Allocation

Great Lakes: 1 bid
Mid-Atlantic: 3 bids
Northeast: 2 bids
Northwest: 1 bid (-1)
North Central: 3 bids
South Central: 3 bids
Southeast: 1 bid
Southwest: 2 bids (+1)

Discussion

While there is definitely the possibility for score changes or dropped results to affect the bid outcome at the bubble in the Mixed Division, it does appear that the Southwest has hit one at the buzzer as the Polar Bears climb to #16 after the Pro Flight Finale. Not only that, but it seems that Blackbird also helped out the region by playing so badly at PFF that they sunk the Northwest’s BFG, whose ranking was inflated by two close games with Blackbird, to #17 outside the bid region. Wild!

Of course, the 13 points of ranking separation means this is a very tentative result. But it is clear that Blackbird’s brutal PFF weekend is going to pull BFG down with them, opening the door for the Southwest to get a second bid.

Otherwise, there are few surprises here. The Great Lakes should be exciting as a strong Steamboat team has to fend off a UPA team that has been waiting in the wings. The Northeast is in a down year with just two bids, but with two very strong teams at the top. And the South Central is going to hang on to three bids after shame. stays put at #11.

Women’s Division

Implied Bid Allocation

Great Lakes: 1 bid
Mid-Atlantic: 2 bids
Northeast: 2 bids
Northwest: 3 bids
North Central: 1 bid
South Central: 2 bids
Southeast: 2 bids
Southwest: 3 bids

Discussion

No changes in allocation this week in the Women’s Division with little opportunity for anything to change, even in the case of dropped results. The Northeast is the biggest loser, as the region finishes with the first three teams outside the cutoff (#16 Bent, #17 Siege, and #18 Iris)¹

Schwa couldn’t make up ground at the Pro Flight Finale, so the Northwest will have just three bids this season. It will likely be a battle between Underground and Schwa for the last berth at Nationals.

The Women’s bid picture has changed little over the last few weeks.

1. The Great Lakes’ autobid took away the Bent bid. ↩