2016 National Championships Seeding Predictions: Women’s Division

What do you think?

Both the US Open and Pro-Elite Challenge ended with Riot facing Brute Squad.
Riot and Brute Squad, almost certainly the top two seeds at Nationals. Photo: Ken Forman — UltiPhotos.com

Here are Ultiworld’s seeding predictions (and associated pools) for the Women’s Division at the 2016 USA Ultimate National Championships:

POOL APOOL BPOOL CPOOL D
Riot (1)Brute Squad (2)Molly Brown (3)Fury (4)
Nightlock (8)Wildfire (7)Traffic (6)Scandal (5)
Iris (12)Showdown (11)Phoenix (10)Ozone (9)
Heist (13)Rival (14)Green Means Go (15)Schwa (16)

Here is the basic reasoning for the seedings presented above, based heavily on the latest USA Ultimate rankings that include postseason performance so far:

1. Seattle Riot – USAU #1, almost 100 points ahead of Brute Squad

2. Boston Brute Squad – USAU #2, 2-0 v. Molly Brown

3. Denver Molly Brown – USAU #3, 2-1 v. Fury

4. San Francisco Fury – USAU #4, only one loss to team outside top 3 (Traffic)

5. Washington DC Scandal – USAU #5, 1-1 v. Traffic, strong resume

6. Vancouver Traffic – USAU #6, losses only to top 5

7. San Diego Wildfire – USAU #7, defeated Nightlock at Regionals

8. San Francisco Nightlock – USAU #9

9. Atlanta Ozone – Defeated Phoenix at Regionals

10. Raleigh Phoenix – USAU #10, H2H win over Showdown

11. Austin Showdown – H2H win over Iris

12. Quebec Iris – USAU #13

13. Madison Heist – USAU #14

14. Columbus Rival – H2H win over Green Means Go

15. Philadelphia Green Means Go – USAU #15, H2H win over Schwa

16. Portland Schwa – USAU #19

***

Discussion

– The Women’s Division is fairly clearly striated, with an obvious top six and distinct tiering all the way to #16. Iris is perhaps the most interesting seeding case, because they have just one win against a Nationals team (Ozone) who beat them later at the same tournament. You could certainly argue that Heist, who is just a few points behind Iris in the rankings, deserves to be seeded ahead of them because of their more robust resume. However, as usual, we lean on the rankings without an obvious reason to make an adjustment.

– Otherwise, there should be few surprises with the seeding. Ozone and Phoenix swap places relative to the algorithm because Ozone won the Southeast.

– These seedings conform to Regionals results, though not by design. Remember that seeding is no longer bound by Regionals finish.

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