We project the pools at Nationals.
September 28, 2017 by Charlie Eisenhood in Analysis with 5 comments
Here are Ultiworld’s seeding predictions (and associated pools) for the Mixed Division at the 2017 USA Ultimate National Championships:
| POOL A | POOL B | POOL C | POOL D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mixtape (1) | AMP (2) | Drag'N Thrust (3) | BFG (4) |
| Mischief (8) | Blackbird (7) | Wild Card (6) | Slow White (5) |
| NOISE (12) | Toro (11) | shame. (10) | Steamboat (9) |
| Public Enemy (13) | Metro North (14) | Love Tractor (15) | No Touching! (16) |
Here is the basic reasoning for the seedings presented above, based heavily on the latest USA Ultimate rankings that include postseason performance so far:
1. Seattle Mixtape – Clear #1 seed. #1 ranked team. Over 50 points clear of AMP. 2-1 v. AMP.
2. Philadelphia AMP – Clear #2 seed. 90 points ahead over #3 Slow White. H2H wins over Slow and Drag’N.
3. Minneapolis Drag’N Thrust – H2H wins over both Slow White and BFG. Ranked #4 but only 13 points behind #3 Slow White.
4. Seattle BFG – H2H win over Slow White. Champion at Pro-Elite and Elite-Select. Ranked #5 but only 18 points behind Slow White.
5. Boston Slow White – Could be wrong about moving them down two spots from their #3 ranking, but it seems difficult to justify seeding them above Drag’N or BFG given their similar resumes and their H2H results.
6. Boston Wild Card – Ranked #6. Finished behind Slow White at NE Regionals. 2-0 H2H record vs. Slow won’t come into play.
7. San Francisco Blackbird – Ranked #8, but have H2H win in SW Regional final over #7 Mischief. 27 points behind Mischief in rankings.
8. San Francisco Mischief – Although Regionals results are no longer binding, this seems like an obvious swap of the rankings.
9. Cincinnati Steamboat – Ranked #10. H2H win over #9 shame. Only 3 rankings points behind shame (negligible difference).
10. Fort Collins shame. – Ranked #9. Despite finishing behind Public Enemy at Regionals, substantial ratings gap should see shame seeded higher.
11. Durham Toro – Ranked #12 (#11 Alloy did not qualify). Very little connectivity with Nationals field.
12. Madison NOISE – Ranked #14. Big H2H win (13-6) over Public Enemy.
13. Dallas Public Enemy – Ranked #13. Would be shocked if they ended up seeded ahead of shame, whom they beat at Regionals.
14. Connecticut Metro North – Clear #14 seed. Ranked #15.
15. Boulder Love Tractor – Clear #15 seed. Ranked #16.
16. Minneapolis No Touching! – Clear #16 seed. Ranked #27.
***
Discussion
- The ordering of Drag’N, BFG, and Slow at #3-5 is going to be interesting. Slow is the highest ranked team but has losses to both of the teams below them. I think it is pretty clear that Drag’N will go ahead of them. The order of BFG and Slow, then, doesn’t really matter, as they would be in the same pool.
- Otherwise, I think the seedings are fairly clear. A few swaps (Blackbird/Mischief…Steamboat/shame…NOISE/Public Enemy) for clear H2H results.
- Theoretically, it could be interesting to see what happens with shame and Public Enemy, but I think the big ratings gap and USAU’s reliance on rankings means there won’t be much to see there.
