Whose counting stats are inflated and whose are overrated?
May 18, 2022 by Paul Würtztack in Analysis with 0 comments
Going back to the start of the 2021 season when I started keeping track, the single-game scoring-efficiency (SE) mark of 0.721 was set by Atlanta and Pittsburgh in their Week 9, 49 goal/19 turnover score-fest, won by Atlanta 29-22. As no other game last year surpassed 0.70, the mark seemed likely to stand for a while.
I track this number since it determines the values of turnovers and blocks in each game, on the theory that the value of turnovers should rise and fall in relation to their scarcity, and that specifically we can set the turnover value to the game SE. I use the game SE instead of either the team’s SE or the opponent’s SE alone since the value of the turnover is a blend of the likelihood that the opponent will score with the extra possession and the likelihood that the player’s team would have scored without the turnover.
This week, two games took a shot at the high-water mark. On Friday, Salt Lake and Seattle shredded torched the defenses for 53 goals and only 21 turns, for an SE that fell just short at 0.716. On Saturday, Toronto and Ottawa did not fall short. They set a new mark of 0.724 in their 55-goal, 21-turnover shootout. (Atlanta retains the single-team mark of 0.82 from their Week 9 victory last year).
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