Our annual College Picks-based game is back.
June 6, 2022 by in Fantasy with 0 comments
With the 2022 D-III and D-I College Championships in the book, our college fantasy competitions and games are all wrapped up. We picked the winners, guessed the props, and tried to find the upsets and which favorites to target. Hopefully, following along was fun.
But now let’s break down the results and announce the winners of #TheGame for each of the D-I and D-III College Championships, as well as the Beat Charlie Challenge for the D-I College Championships.
D-III #TheGame
The Winners
Gordon L and Henry L scored 640 points for a tie, taking us to tiebreakers. Henry L won tiebreaker #1 how many different goal-scorers would be in the finals, with a guess of 9, which was closer to correct answer (28) than Gordon L’s call (3).
There’s no way around it: D-III #TheGame was chalky. The two most popular men’s teams — #2 Oklahoma Christian and #1 Middlebury — were the two highest scoring. The most popular women’s team — #1 Middlebury — was the second highest scoring team. Only one entry that finished in the top 30 didn’t include both Middlebury in the women’s division and OC in the men’s. St Olaf men’s was second in their division in scoring and third most popular, while the school’s club actually led the women’s division in scoring and were the fourth most selected team, though quite a step down from the big top two.
Henry L and Gordon L both win a free month of Full Subscription from Ultiworld, fittingly, although Henry gets the bragging rights.
Selection Stats
Top 5 Women’s Teams
- #1 Middlebury (76.5%)
- #1 Carleton (51.2%)
- #1 Portland (24.3%)
- #3 St. Olaf (23.8%)
- #2 Lehigh (9.2%)
Middlebury was even a bigger favorite this year than last, where they had 70% of the picks. Portland delivered just 50 points and Lehigh only 40 points, so those proved to be difficult picks to overcome. #1 Wellesley, the third highest scoring team and a finalist, was the sixth most popular choice.
Top 5 Men’s Teams
- #1 Middlebury (57.2%)
- #3 Oklahoma Christian (51.3%)
- #1 St. Olaf (43.3%)
- #1 Colorado College (23.7%)
- #1 Berry (15.7%)
A clear concentration of picks in the group of Middlebury, OC, and Olaf. Because of that, the rest of the picks were pretty scattered. Bottom seeds Grace (2.9%) and Scranton (1.5%) each registered 80 points, exceeding Middlebury for the third highest scoring in the tournament, while the participants showed little faith in the underdogs.
The Perfect Lineup
- #1 Middlebury W
- #3 Oklahoma Christian M
- #1 St. Olaf M
- #3 St. Olaf W
- Any of #4 Grace M, #4 Scranton M, or #1 Wellesley W
A total of 645 points, just five points ahead of our winners.
The Tiebreakers
The first: how many players would score goals in the either of the finals? This went up from last year’s 26 to 28 this time around.
The second: how many combined goals will the Berry men’s and women’s division teams concede in pool play? 68 goals were scored against the two separate Berry clubs. We had multiple shutouts called for, as well as 960, which even if we charitably assume was supposed to be 96, would be the highest guess, and would mean more than average of 15 goals against per match.
The third: how many total points will the losing quarterfinals teams in both divisions score in the quarterfinal round? In their losses, the team’s managed 57 goals. The average guess was just under 50, so not super far off, but not really that close to the bullseye, either.
D-I #TheGame
The Winners
Sam T finished in first on tiebreaker 1, just barely beating Avery D, both with 590 points. Liam finished third with 585 points. The tiebreaker — how many blocks would be recorded in the semifinals — went to Sam, whose guess of 8 was closer to the correct answer of 60, than Avery’s guess of 3. Both were way off, but Sam’s was less way off.
Sam T wins an Ultiworld Greatest Bag and a free month of Full Subscription from Ultiworld.
Avery D and Liam each win a free month of Full Subscription from Ultiworld.
Selection Stats
Top 5 Women’s Teams
- #1 North Carolina (73.58%)
- #2 Washington (29.9%)
- #3 Vermont (27.6%)
- #1 Colorado (15.3%)
- #1 Carleton (15.2%)
Well, the massive favorite UNC was able to deliver as the top scoring team, dropping in 135 big ones into most of the entries’ scorecard. Colorado was the second highest scorer, but two teams from off of the list outscored Carleton and Washington: UC Davis and UC San Diego. Each pulled in 90 to join Vermont as the third best picks in the women’s division. Conversely, victims of upsets (UBC, Tufts, Stanford and Georgia) were avoids, but very few entries opted to pick anyone seeded below UC San Diego.
Top 5 Men’s Teams
- #1 Brown (56.2%)
- #1 North Carolina (51.3%)
- #2 Georgia (34.6%)
- #4 Washington (29.5%)
- #3 Vermont (16.9%)
Folks, I was wrong. I thought Washington would be the defining men’s team, the most popular with the championship favorites. I underestimated the pull of being a 2021 finalist like Georgia. It drew interest in both division’s, and Washington ended up in under a third of lineups, very surprising to me. UNC was the top scoring team and Brown was the fourth, but there were two overlooked teams between them: California (5.1%) and Minnesota (12.5%). Each scored a pool play upset and added a prequarter win for 120 points. Vermont turned out to be a landmine that quite a few players stepped on.
The Perfect Lineup
- #1 North Carolina M
- #1 North Carolina W
- #3 California M
- #3 Minnesota M
- #1 Colorado W
A total of 670 points, well ahead of the top entries. You could have done it!
The Tiebreakers
The first: how many total blocks would be recorded in the semifinal games? The total was 60, almost triple the average guess, which was just over 21. Michael Arbutine was the only entrant to correctly select that total.
The second: how many total points will be scored against the no.1 seeds (Brown M and North Carolina W) in pool play? 59 points were scored against the teams atop Pool A in play, with UNC leading the way by holding opponents to 26 goals. 9 entries got it just right.
The third: how many total goals will teams from the Southeast (Georgia M, Georgia W, Florida State W, Auburn M) score during pool and bracket play? Admittedly, a tough one to get, but 232 was the right number. Given the number of variant paths, a lot of reasonable potential options. Yet three different entries arrived at this number: Daniel Prentice, Nate Hess, and Javier Martinez.
Beat Charlie Challenge
Charlie’s Picks
41 of 309 entries outscored Mr. Eisenhood, who finished with 26 points. That puts Charlie at about the 86th percentile, still a strong score, as he has historically put up.
D-I Women’s
- Quarterfinals: #1 North Carolina, #2 Colorado, #3 Carleton, #4 UC Santa Barbara, #5 Washington, #7 Tufts, #9 Vermont, #10 UC San Diego
- Semifinals: #1 North Carolina, #2 Colorado, #3 Carleton, #5 Washington
- Final: #1 North Carolina, #2 Colorado
- Champion: #1 North Carolina
- Scored: 15
Charlie outperformed the field in women’s by quite a bit, almost three points on average. Where he got a lot of that was getting Colorado in the final, with over 50% of the field looking to Carleton, UC Santa Barbara, or Washington to get in. The other difference-maker was the quarterfinals, where a glut of teams held 40-50% selection rates for the seventh and eight spots (the top five seeds and Vermont were all over 60%). Tufts, UBC, Stanford, and UC San Diego were all in that mix, and Charlie got one of two. Georgia and UC Davis were over 20%, as well.
D-I Men’s
- Quarterfinals: #1 Brown, #2 Colorado, #3 North Carolina, #4 Pittsburgh, #5 Georgia, #6 Vermont, #8 Cal Poly SLO, #14 Washington
- Semifinals: #1 Brown, #2 Colorado, #3 North Carolina, #4 Pittsburgh
- Final: #1 Brown, #2 Colorado
- Champion: #2 Colorado
- Scored: 11
Charlie just edged the average in this category, which was a little over 10 points. Georgia was a very popular semifinal pick, while Pittsburgh was actually behind Vermont! After those teams, only SLO was the other team selected by over 10% of entries. We gave it back by having UNC knocked out in semifinals, but was aided by the fact that only 18.8% of entries took Darkside to repeat.
The Winners
By random selection of entrants who outscored Charlie, Haoyang Y. will get an Ultiworld Greatest Bag. Oliver C will receive a Free Month of Full Subscription.
Feedback Welcome!
Did you play? Did you not play? Why or why not? What rules would be fun to play with? What tweaks can be made?
We want #thegame and the Beat Charlie Challenge to be fun and have different strategies be viable without being too complicated for lots of people to enter. You can contact me by emailing [email protected] or on Twitter @FullFieldHammer.