Here's our best guess.
May 10, 2023 by Michael Ball in Analysis with 0 comments
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After the excitement of Regionals, we now have the full field of Nationals teams. It’s time to start thinking about what the seeding and pools might look like for the College Championships.
We are back to a normal seeding approach from USA Ultimate. The post-Regionals rankings will be heavily leaned upon, and the order of finish at Regionals “will be strongly considered in determining seeding for Nationals, but will not be binding.”
Please note that we do our best to follow USA Ultimate’s unstated guidelines for seeding: head-to-head wins matter at the margin and historic success is considered. There will be no teams from the same region in a pool together.
Let’s kick things off right away with the pools generated by my predicted seeding.
Men’s Division
| POOL A | POOL B | POOL C | POOL D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado College (1) | St. Olaf (2) | Middlebury (3) | Whitman (4) |
| Kenyon (8) | Williams (7) | Lewis & Clark (6) | Richmond (5) |
| Occidental (12) | Navy (11) | Grinnell (10) | Missouri S&T (9) |
| Berry (13) | Colorado Mines (14) | Butler (15) | Rochester (16) |
Notes
- While technically Regionals finish isn’t binding, it would be weird for Whitman to be seeded immediately behind two teams they have H2H wins over, so they should move up from their #6 spot in the rankings to the #4 seed.
- S&T and Kenyon are tied by rating, so I flipped the two to avoid putting SC teams in the same pool.
- Grinnell and Navy are only separated by 10 rating points, so I flipped to avoid NC rematch in pool play.
- Gets tricky at the bottom; I had to bump Mines two spots in order to avoid SC teams in same pool. Could also switch Mines and Navy, but feels too punishing to Navy.
Women’s Division
| POOL A | POOL B | POOL C | POOL D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlebury (1) | Wellesley (2) | Carleton (3) | Portland (4) |
| Haverford & Bryn Mawr (8) | Whitman (7) | Mount Holyoke (6) | Williams (5) |
| Catholic (12) | Occidental (11) | Colorado Collage (10) | St. Olaf (9) |
| Michigan Tech (13) | Wesleyan (14) | Knox (15) | Berry (16) |
Notes
- Whitman and Portland can’t be in the same pool; dropping Whitman two spots to 7 feels harsh, but it also avoids NE rematches
- Everything else falls in in straightforward fashion following the rankings
