We project the pools at Nationals.
September 28, 2017 by Charlie Eisenhood in Analysis with 2 comments
Here are Ultiworld’s seeding predictions (and associated pools) for the Women’s Division at the 2017 USA Ultimate National Championships:
| POOL A | POOL B | POOL C | POOL D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riot (1) | Brute Squad (2) | Molly Brown (3) | Fury (4) |
| 6ixers (8) | Ozone (7) | Traffic (6) | Scandal (5) |
| Showdown (12) | Underground (11) | Heist (10) | Nightlock (9) |
| Pop (13) | Rival (14) | Schwa (15) | Nemesis (16) |
Here is the basic reasoning for the seedings presented above, based heavily on the latest USA Ultimate rankings that include postseason performance so far:
1. Seattle Riot – #1 ranked team. 1-1 v. Brute Squad with the win coming more recently.
2. Boston Brute Squad – Clear #2. Ranked #2, just two points behind Riot.
3. Denver Molly Brown – Despite being ranked 50 points behind Fury, Molly Brown has to be seeded ahead of them. They have two H2H wins over SF and have, outside of a surprising loss to Showdown at Regionals, had the clearly superior season.
4. San Francisco Fury – Ranked #3. 2-0 v. Scandal.
5. Washington DC Scandal – Clear #5 seed. Ranked nearly 100 points ahead of Traffic.
6. Vancouver Traffic – Ranked #6. H2H win over Ozone.
7. Atlanta Ozone – Clear #7 seed. Ranked #7.
8. Toronto 6ixers – Clear #8 seed. Ranked #8.
9. San Francisco Nightlock – Has played none of the teams ranked near them except Ozone (12-11 loss). As a result, clear #9.
10. Madison Heist – Ranked #10. Won NC Regionals over Pop.
11. Seattle Underground – Brutally tough to seed Underground. They have a H2H win over Showdown, who has a H2H win over Pop. But Underground is ranked behind both teams at #13. Ultimately, decided to put them at #11 because rankings are quite close between #11 and #14. Has the added benefit of moving Underground out of Pool A with Riot.
12. Austin Showdown – Ranked #12. H2H win over Pop. H2H loss to Underground. Won the SC Region over Molly Brown.
13. Minneapolis Pop – Ranked #11, but only 14 points ahead of Showdown, to whom they lost.
14. Columbus Rival – Ranked #15, but H2H win over Schwa.
15. Portland Schwa – Ranked #14. H2H win over Nemesis.
16. Chicago Nemesis – Clear #16 seed. Ranked #16.
***
Discussion
- Last year, I perfectly predicted the Women’s seeding. I am not as confident this year. There are a number of very tricky seeding situations, particularly Underground/Showdown/Pop. I think you could also see Showdown at #11, Pop at #12, and then Underground at #13. I don’t think that quite passes the eye test, though, since Underground and Showdown are almost identically ranked (3 points apart) and UG has the H2H win. If you agree UG should go ahead of Showdown, it’s hard to put Pop ahead of both teams, since Pop lost to Showdown. Avoiding the regional matchup between Riot and Underground and rewarding the SC champion over the NC runner-up also adds a little extra justification at the margin.
- We could be surprised with Fury going ahead of Molly because of the rankings differential, but I doubt it.
