Which players had the best weekend?
June 30, 2021 by Paul in Analysis with 0 comments
With now more than 40 games worth of data creating robust “league averages” and illuminating all aspects of EDGE, it’s time to make a couple of adjustments. Because we had no “past-season” data to work with in developing the statistic, EDGE is being modified on the fly, and by the time we have a whole season’s worth of data, we may settle on a consensus preferred version.
First, we’ll change the basis for calculating the yardage and scoring coefficients. Instead of deriving them on an individual-game basis, we will fix each of them based on overall league averages. This makes the calculation of EDGE much simpler, a key goal for a box-score measure. The current league-average is 0.663 goal equivalents for every 100 yards, and 0.223 for every goal or assist. This will also place a player’s EDGE score more in relation to the league rather than the specific game in which they played. However, even as we move to fixed values for yardage and scores, we will continue to employ game-specific scoring efficiencies to properly value turnovers (and blocks). These efficiencies have ranged from 0.36 to 0.69, with the league average at 0.51 goals per possession. 1
The second change follows from using a league-average yardage value. Previously, if team yardage was very abundant, the value of yardage in that game was discounted relative to games in which it was rarer, all else equal. In effect, an opponent-quality factor was built in, even if a few odd games gave the impression that it wasn’t. Now that we will use the league average value, high-yardage players will get more yardage credit, even if they played against a weak opponent. Although opponent quality should largely even out by season’s end in a roughly balanced semi-pro league schedule, it can affect week-to-week performances.
In short, one can now quickly calculate a basic EDGE-O score for the AUDL as follows:
Total yards * 0.00663 + Total GLS+ASTS* 0.223 – Turns * GameSE
Game SE= Total goals/Total Goals+Total Turns
EDGE-B = Blocks *GameSE
EDGE = EDGE-O + EDGE-B ↩
Better Box Score Metrics: EDGE Stats for AUDL Week 4 is only available to Ultiworld Subscribers
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