Here's what we expect to see!
May 5, 2025 by Charlie Eisenhood in Analysis
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After the excitement of Regionals, we now have the full field of Nationals teams. It’s time to start thinking about what the seeding and pools might look like for the College Championships.
The post-Regionals rankings — expected Wednesday but approximated by Frisbee-Rankings.com — will be heavily leaned upon, and the order of finish at Regionals “will be strongly considered in determining seeding for Nationals, but will not be binding.” Please note that we do our best to follow USA Ultimate’s additional guidelines (and precedent) for seeding: head-to-head wins matter at the margin and historic success is considered.
Let’s kick things off right away with the pools generated by my predicted seeding. All references to rankings are to those predicted by Frisbee-Rankings.com; game validation and other changes could alter the final rankings and consequently change the seeding.
Men’s Division
| POOL A | POOL B | POOL C | POOL D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado (1) | UNC (2) | Massachusetts (3) | Oregon (4) |
| Oregon State (8) | UC Santa Cruz (7) | Cal Poly SLO (6) | Carleton (5) |
| Texas (12) | Northeastern (11) | California (10) | WashU (9) |
| Vermont (13) | UBC (14) | Georgia (15) | Penn State (16) |
| Utah (17) | Western Washington (18) | Michigan (19) | Ottawa (20) |
1. Colorado — Well, let’s get started talking about this top 5. Oregon, UMass, UNC, Colorado, and Carleton are the top-ranked teams, in that order. But the head-to-head records have never been murkier! It’s a super balanced group, and really all but Carleton has a reasonable claim to be the #1 overall seed. Colorado has a H2H advantage over UMass and wins over UNC and Oregon (plus an Easterns win, the best of the regular season). UNC has the legacy and a H2H advantage over UMass (plus an SMI win). Oregon won Prez Day and is #1 in the rankings. UMass has the head-to-head over Oregon and is #2 in the rankings behind them. So how did we land here? Ultimately, the Easterns win should be a tiebreaker over UNC, who to my eyes has the next best results.
2. UNC — See above. Giving UNC some extra credit for being the best men’s college program of the last decade is also reasonable (and typical of USAU). They have a H2H advantage over UMass. UNC beat Colorado shorthanded (no Dameron) at SMI but lost at full strength later in the season at Easterns. More reason to give Colorado the edge IMO.
3. UMass — 1-0 vs. Oregon. 0-1 vs. UNC and Colorado. #2 ranked.
4. Oregon — #1 ranked. Split games with UNC, Colorado, and Carleton. 0-1 v. UMass. The team’s results feel weaker than those of the top 3 seeds.
5. Carleton — #5 in the rankings. No head-to-head advantages. Warm Up win feels eons ago. Hard to see them moving out of Pool D in either direction with the 2-0 H2H record vs. SLO.
6. Cal Poly SLO — Actually quite obviously #6. Winless vs. teams above them, clearly ahead of Santa Cruz.
7. UC Santa Cruz — Clear #7 with rankings. 1-0 vs. Oregon State.
8. Oregon State — Rankings, H2H loss to UCSC.
9. WashU — Next in the rankings
10. California — Rankings, two H2H wins over Northeastern.
11. Northeastern — 1-0 vs. Texas, and ranked higher.
12. Texas — Rankings. This does create a regional matchup with Colorado, but they actually never played this season or at Regionals. Hard to justify swapping it given Northeastern’s H2H win.
13. Vermont — Bumping Vermont past UBC to clean up some ugly regional rematches. UBC also finished last in the Northwest, so you don’t need much convincing to make this swap. This avoids a Vermont/Northeastern rematch and cleans up a three-SW team Pool A. USAU does not explicitly avoid regional rematches, but this is an easy fix and there’s no need to have three teams from a region in a pool.
14. UBC — Their regular season resumé will make up some for their low Regionals finish.
15. Georgia — 0-1 vs. Vermont. 2-0 vs. Penn State.
16. Penn State — Straight forward by rankings
17. Utah — Rewarding Utah a bit for their Regionals performance and H2H win over WWU.
18. Western Washington — Rankings
19. Michigan — Rankings
20. Ottawa — Rankings
Women’s Division
| POOL A | POOL B | POOL C | POOL D |
|---|---|---|---|
| UBC (1) | Tufts (2) | Carleton (3) | Colorado (4) |
| UNC (8) | Oregon (7) | Washington (6) | Vermont (5) |
| Cal Poly SLO (12) | Michigan (11) | Stanford (10) | UCSB (9) |
| UC San Diego (13) | UCSC (14) | Utah (15) | Victoria (16) |
| Penn (17) | UC Davis (18) | Georgia (19) | Cornell (20) |
1. UBC — #1 ranked team in the division, by some margin. Just one loss vs. Colorado, whom they earlier beat. Won a very tough NW region. Much tougher schedule than Tufts.
2. Tufts — Head-to-head win over #2 ranked Carleton. Undefeated!
3. Carleton — Clear from the rankings and H2H results.
4. Colorado — Straight forward, #4 ranked.
5. Vermont — #5 ranked.
6. Washington — #6 ranked.
7. Oregon — #7 ranked and H2H over Stanford.
8. UNC — #9 ranked. Bumping UNC up, both based on the regional win and their dominant recent history, past Stanford feels very justifiable, and that doesn’t even account for the better balance by moving a Southwest team to Pool A.
9. UCSB — Rewarding UCSB for strong SW win, above and beyond rankings. Murky season results suggest rewarding the best SW team at Regionals. They have a H2H win over UCSD and Stanford from Regionals. Putting them ahead of Michigan makes regional rematches less ugly for SW teams.
10. Stanford — Second place in Southwest, highly ranked
11. Michigan — #11 ranked. Putting Michigan here spreads out the Southwest teams to minimize rematches.
12. Cal Poly SLO — 3rd in Southwest.
13. UC San Diego — Rankings, H2H losses to USCB, Stanford, SLO at Regionals.
14. UC Santa Cruz — Rankings and H2H win over Utah
15. Utah — Rankings, H2H win over Victoria
16. Victoria — Rankings, H2H win over Penn
17. Penn — Rankings, H2H win over Davis
18. UC Davis — Rankings
19. Georgia — Rankings
20. Cornell — Rankings
