Cincinnati?!
March 29, 2016 by Charlie Eisenhood and Cody Mills in Analysis with 10 comments
Ultiworld’s Cody Mills has put together a statistical tool to approximate the USA Ultimate rankings by using publicly available score data and applying the algorithm that USA Ultimate uses to run their numbers. While the results below are unofficial and could include some scores which are liable to be altered or removed from the official rankings, they are a good representation of the what the current rankings would look like.
Throughout the remainder of the college season, we will be running this USAU ranking approximation and, later, applying different algorithms and/or ranking methods to test possible alternatives to the existing algorithm.
For more information about the USA Ultimate algorithm, ranking system, and some of its perceived flaws, see this FAQ from last year.
Men’s Division
The rankings below include only teams with at least five sanctioned games.
| Rank | Team | Region | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Massachusetts | NE | 2262.33 |
| #2 | Wisconsin | NC | 2187.19 |
| #3 | Minnesota | NC | 2140.94 |
| #4 | Oregon | NW | 2135.99 |
| #5 | Pittsburgh | OV | 2082.97 |
| #6 | Stanford | SW | 2071.36 |
| #7 | North Carolina-Wilmington | AC | 2040.01 |
| #8 | Florida | SE | 2018.53 |
| #9 | North Carolina | AC | 1989.19 |
| #10 | Harvard | NE | 1963.16 |
| #11 | Washington | NW | 1957.59 |
| #12 | Georgia | SE | 1924.53 |
| #13 | Colorado | SC | 1919.85 |
| #14 | Carleton College | NC | 1915.58 |
| #15 | British Columbia | NW | 1906.24 |
| #16 | Brigham Young | NW | 1899.56 |
| #17 | Texas A&M | SC | 1867.84 |
| #18 | Cincinnati | OV | 1814.99 |
| #19 | Cal Poly-SLO | SW | 1814.07 |
| #20 | Texas Christian | SC | 1813.23 |
| #21 | Texas | SC | 1790.45 |
| #22 | Florida State | SE | 1783.78 |
| #23 | California-Santa Barbara | SW | 1775.42 |
| #24 | Virginia Tech | AC | 1769.59 |
| #25 | Auburn | SE | 1759.04 |
| #26 | Colorado State | SC | 1758.29 |
| #27 | Michigan | GL | 1754.28 |
| #28 | Arkansas | SC | 1745.18 |
| #29 | Victoria | NW | 1740.62 |
| #30 | Tulane | SE | 1734.30 |
| #31 | Ohio State | OV | 1734.20 |
| #32 | Central Florida | SE | 1726.32 |
| #33 | LSU | SE | 1720.17 |
| #34 | Purdue | GL | 1719.81 |
| #35 | Western Washington | NW | 1696.00 |
| #36 | Connecticut | ME | 1693.51 |
| #37 | California-San Diego | SW | 1685.34 |
| #38 | Oregon State | NW | 1676.20 |
| #39 | James Madison | AC | 1675.91 |
| #40 | Missouri | SC | 1674.17 |
| #41 | Arizona | SW | 1653.63 |
| #42 | Georgia Tech | SE | 1647.39 |
| #43 | Brown | NE | 1647.02 |
| #44 | Case Western Reserve | OV | 1635.17 |
| #45 | Utah | NW | 1622.72 |
| #46 | Virginia Commonwealth | AC | 1616.77 |
| #47 | Maryland | AC | 1603.89 |
| #48 | George Washington | AC | 1596.68 |
| #49 | North Carolina State | AC | 1595.80 |
| #50 | John Brown | SC | 1551.26 |
Implied Bid Allocation
Atlantic Coast: 2 bids
Great Lakes: 1 bid
Metro East: 1 bid
New England: 2 bids
North Central: 3 bids
Northwest: 4 bids
Ohio Valley: 2 bids (+1)
South Central: 2 bids
Southeast: 2 bids
Southwest: 1 bid (-1)
Discussion
As expected, BYU’s strong weekend at the Northwest Challenge has vaulted them into bid-earning range at #16 after they got wins over three teams (Washington, UBC, and Victoria) ranked above them. However, it’s no net gain for the Northwest, as Victoria slipped to #29 after a so-so weekend; their high ranking was resting entirely on a handful of games from the Santa Barbara Invite back in January. Of course, bigger questions have to be answered about BYU and the Northwest at this point. Will they be accommodated to compete at Regionals? If not, will the Northwest keep the bid, or will it fall to the ‘next team up?’ It seems most plausible that USA Ultimate will allow the Northwest teams and Regional Coordinator to decide what to do — and they may have a big incentive (an extra bid) to find a way to get BYU involved. More to come on this story.
The other big news from this week: Cincinnati is currently a bid earner! An early season 13-5 win over BYU is floating Cincinnati, much like last year when an early win over Tulane kept them high in the rankings for the entire season. Cincinnati has just one tournament left: Huck Finn!
But this year there’s no chance of them ducking out. Not only is there an explicit rule against late dropouts for bid purposes now on the books, they are also short of the 10 sanctioned games required to be included in the final rankings.
With Cincinnati sitting at #18, they will have an exceptional opportunity to earn a second bid for the Ohio Valley in St. Louis this weekend. They will have to vie with teams like #19 Cal Poly SLO at Huck Finn (and #21 Texas at Centex) for the final bid. We essentially a “play-in weekend” for the last bid to Nationals. Exciting!
Women’s Division
The rankings below include only teams with at least five sanctioned games.
| Rank | Team | Region | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | British Columbia | NW | 2343.91 |
| #2 | Oregon | NW | 2301.71 |
| #3 | Stanford | SW | 2226.68 |
| #4 | Whitman | NW | 2212.86 |
| #5 | Central Florida | SE | 2211.56 |
| #6 | Texas | SC | 2050.61 |
| #7 | Washington | NW | 2016.60 |
| #8 | UCLA | SW | 2014.62 |
| #9 | Michigan | GL | 1982.14 |
| #10 | Colorado | SC | 1936.59 |
| #11 | Pittsburgh | OV | 1935.38 |
| #12 | California | SW | 1908.26 |
| #13 | Western Washington | NW | 1902.66 |
| #14 | Minnesota | NC | 1848.05 |
| #15 | Ohio State | OV | 1830.59 |
| #16 | Virginia | AC | 1806.04 |
| #17 | Colorado College | SC | 1803.84 |
| #18 | California-Davis | SW | 1793.76 |
| #19 | California-San Diego | SW | 1768.52 |
| #20 | Vermont | NE | 1756.62 |
| #21 | Wisconsin | NC | 1750.33 |
| #22 | Northeastern | NE | 1723.86 |
| #23 | Penn State | OV | 1695.55 |
| #24 | Tufts | NE | 1689.02 |
| #25 | North Carolina-Wilmington | AC | 1683.29 |
| #26 | Maryland | AC | 1680.85 |
| #27 | Notre Dame | GL | 1670.75 |
| #28 | Kansas | SC | 1668.56 |
| #29 | North Carolina | AC | 1657.93 |
| #30 | Florida State | SE | 1652.67 |
| #31 | Southern California | SW | 1630.78 |
| #32 | Dartmouth | NE | 1597.28 |
| #33 | Iowa State | NC | 1588.81 |
| #34 | Liberty | AC | 1552.98 |
| #35 | Victoria | NW | 1505.54 |
| #36 | Delaware | AC | 1499.54 |
| #37 | Georgia Tech | SE | 1494.42 |
| #38 | Loyola-Chicago | GL | 1492.02 |
| #39 | Denver | SC | 1491.51 |
| #40 | Bowdoin | NE | 1454.47 |
| #41 | Texas State | SC | 1438.02 |
| #42 | Carleton College | NC | 1433.87 |
| #43 | Florida | NE | 1427.33 |
| #44 | Northwestern | GL | 1406.05 |
| #45 | Boston College | NE | 1396.81 |
| #46 | Truman State | SC | 1390.68 |
| #47 | Harvard | NE | 1390.50 |
| #48 | Valparaiso | GL | 1389.43 |
| #49 | California-Irvine | SW | 1382.84 |
| #50 | Case Western Reserve | OV | 1368.03 |
Implied Bid Allocation
Atlantic Coast: 1 bid
Great Lakes: 1 bid
Metro East: 1 bid
New England: 1 bid
North Central: 1 bid
Northwest: 5 bids
Ohio Valley: 2 bids
South Central: 3 bids
Southeast: 1 bid
Southwest: 4 bids
Discussion
There’s a mere week remaining in the regular season and the dust is settling. Northwest Challenge put UC Davis in a tough spot in Tier II and they didn’t manage it effectively — they had to blow out everyone on Saturday and didn’t do so — but they are still where they need to be for a Southwest bid. Western Washington solidified the Northwest’s fifth and final bid. Potentially the only variable bid is that final Southwest strength bid: Davis doesn’t have a huge advantage over Vermont (Northeast) or Wisconsin (North Central). Perhaps if some games are wiped out or scores are adjusted things could shift around in the late season.
As it sits, the west coast has been conquering. Nine of the total 20 bids (or, put differently, seven of the 10 strength bids) are likely headed to the Northwest and Southwest. The South Central’s trio of bids and Ohio Valley’s pair make up the only other multi-bid regions at this time.
