Better Box Score Metrics: EDGE Stats for AUDL Atlantic Playoffs (+Projections!)

A look at the exciting Atlantic divisional playoff performances, and projected outcomes for Championship Weekend.

September 10, 2021 by Paul Würtztack in Analysis with 0 comments

Atlantic Divisional Playoffs

A statistical look at New York’s win over Atlanta feels beside the point. The plays by Matt Smith, Ben Jagt, Ryan Osgar and others punctuated the fact that ultimate’s appeal lies in the “wow” more than the box score. And yet, noting quickly that my EDGE projections missed on both point spreads (now 1-3 in the playoffs), the differing nature of the two games was as expected.

In the New York game, stars shone. Smith, Jagt, Osgar, and John Lithio didn’t just make highlights; they produced all game long, with each of them accounting for EDGE scores above 4. And none of these players led their respective teams. Austin Taylor recorded another huge game for the Hustle, with 498 throwing yards and a single throwaway. Meanwhile, Jack Williams had his biggest yardage production of the season with 730 total yards and led all players in the game with a 5.24 EDGE. That’s six players going north of the 4.0 threshold; in the average league game, just two players would do so.

In contrast, the game between Raleigh and DC was billed as a matchup between similar team-oriented offenses, with yardage and scoring diffused among the many, and that is exactly what we got. Not only was Sol Yanuck the only player in the game to register an EDGE score above 4 (a very healthy 4.76), only he and Eric Taylor went above 3. Seven Breeze players turned in performances above 1.5, led by Jonny Malks’ 2.98, but nine Flyers did so. In the battle of depth, Raleigh went deeper.

All the playoff games to date are found in Table 1. Last week’s entries applied the wrong coefficients for yardage and scoring, using values derived just from the playoff games rather than the coefficients that we fixed as constants about halfway through the season. With the correction, Goose Helton’s huge game against Dallas ticked up from 5.8 to 6.1, and still stands as the high mark of the playoffs to date.

Projections for Championship Weekend

The cross-divisional matchups made for interesting outcomes. In the first semifinal, the EDGE-based projections roll big with NY. It’s an aggressive position, and could be way off if left coast defenses have been tougher than those in the Atlantic. The EDGE machine sees it this way:

San Diego: 18.6
New York: 22.3
New York over San Diego: 22-19

In the second game, it could hardly be closer. Somewhere in there an extra half-point was found for Raleigh, and so I’m betting the house on the Flyers.

Chicago: 21.1
Raleigh: 21.6
Raleigh over Chicago: 22-21

In a hypothetical championship match between the most star-dependent team and one of the least so, like a World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays, we get:

New York: 22.3
Raleigh: 20.1.
New York over Raleigh: 22-20.

But wait — didn’t I just make the point several weeks ago that depth wins games? I did, and the fact is that while NY’s most obvious trait is its star-power, it also has excellent depth and is hardly an oligarchy. New York’s EDGE-O100 values are comparable to Raleigh’s in the middle of the lineup, and comparing the tell-tale ninth highest projected EDGE-O scores in the projected championship game shows Ryan Weaver posting an extra half goal-equivalent compared to Elijah Long. If New York does, in fact, claim their second straight title, it will likely be just as much the result of their expansive middle-class as their one-percenters.

Canada Cup

I will cover the conclusion of Canada’s regular season and the Canada Cup championship next week.

EDGE Stats for Weekend 2 of the Playoffs
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Average EDGE Stats for the 2021 AUDL Season

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