Buzzer Beater: Playoff Preview [UFA Week 13, 2024]

An all-time-best regular season comes to a close…and the playoffs begin!

July 22, 2024 by Alex Rubin in Rankings, Recap with 2 comments

Welcome to Buzzer Beater, Ultiworld’s weekly Ultimate Frisbee Association article rounding up the biggest stories from the weekend in men’s semi-pro ultimate.

Tournament Time

The regular season has concluded and it’s time for the playoffs. Here are the relevant standings:

As a reminder, each first place team gets a bye to the division finals, so this coming week will see the two-seeds host the three-seeds in the first round of the playoffs. The headline game is New York at Boston, but Oakland at Seattle, Chicago at Madison, and Austin at Carolina are also compelling. This was one of the best regular seasons in recent memory, with twists, turns, and upsets nearly every week. The playoffs are shaping up to be a legendary contest, so here’s just a few quick thoughts about each first round matchup, because if I write everything I’m thinking about each matchup this column would actually be a book.

New York Empire at Boston Glory

It’s been a bit since the Empire had to play in the first round of the playoffs, but they’re the most battle-tested team of the modern era. While Boston has a lot of excitement and owns a win over New York in their most recent game, there’s an inevitability to the Empire in the playoffs that I do not see going away just yet. The Glory have the tools to at least keep this game close–and they could absolutely see out a win at home…but they just haven’t yet proven they can do so under the pressure of the playoff moments. I think the Empire can leverage that advantage this time around.

Oakland Spiders at Seattle Cascades

Neither of these teams have been to the playoffs since the 2022 expansion of the division. Oakland has been building to this moment for a few years while Seattle finally burst back into the upper echelon of the league with an increased commitment from their roster this year to put out a consistent set of players week-to-week. Seattle playing at home is a big advantage, in part to ensure that roster consistency. These teams played on back-to-back weeks in May (and split the results), but haven’t played since so it will be tough to guess the outcome based on past results. Since the Spiders are involved, it’s almost guaranteed to be a close game!

Chicago Union at Madison Radicals

This matchup is becoming a Central Division classic, and this year’s edition is particularly exciting. Each team won their home matchup, and the Radicals was the more recent of the two, which seems to give Madison a distinct advantage this time around, but Chicago has a lot more recent playoff success. I expect this one to be closer than Madison’s seven-point win just ten days ago. Since then we’ve seen Nate Astrom level up in a significant way. John Lithio’s playoff experience with New York is also welcome on a team that does have a bunch of newcomers. Of course, the Union also made Championship Weekend in 2021 and 2022, while Madison has not been back since their 2018 title.

Austin Sol at Carolina Flyers

Look, all I’m saying is that Austin won this matchup last season. This year’s Flyers team played a more focused regular season than the 2023 bunch, and they’re itching to get back to Championship Weekend. They’re clearly a better team than the one Austin beat in last season’s playoffs. And…the Sol tasted a bit of success last season with their first Championship Weekend appearance; they’re also eager to prove it was not a fluke. It will take a pair of road playoff wins for Austin, but if they win those there’s no doubt they’ll have earned their way this time around. I just don’t see this year’s Carolina team losing that early again, but I’ve been wrong about this kind of thing before.

News and Notes

• Kelsen Alexander’s four goal, two assist day for the Madison D-line helped the Radicals clinch a playoff spot over last week’s highlighted team Indy. An 18-7 run spanning the 2nd-4th quarters put the game away after a tied first quarter.
• Another DC-New York game produced an offensive showcase. The Breeze won 24-20 to clinch first place in the East Division. Tyler Monroe led the way with six assists for a talented DC team that now gets to host the division final for the first time (I’m not counting 2021, when they hosted one of two mega-Atlantic Division games-to-go to Championship Weekend). A seven-goal run changed an early 1-4 deficit into an 8-4 advantage that held through the rest of the game.
• Atlanta toppled Carolina at home to clinch the South’s top seed. The Hustle smartly used both of their first half timeouts to clinch break scores that proved the difference in an otherwise back-and-forth game. Tobias Brooks (seven assists) and Anders Juengst (six goals) had standout games from the Flyers, who will play an extra playoff game next week after this loss while Atlanta has a bye ahead of a potential rematch.
• Salt Lake raced to a 10-6 lead over Seattle in a game that had seeding implications in the West. The Cascades scored the final four goals to make the score close, but the Shred held on for an 18-16 win. Lukas Ambrose’s five blocks give him 26 for the season, good for the league lead.
• Philadelphia nearly let their four goal lead slip to Pittsburgh, but held on to win the Commonwealth Cup 18-17. Scott Heyman had a well rounded game with two assists, goals, and blocks each.
• Boston split the two games of their Canadian road trip, knocking off Toronto but falling to Montreal. Boston would have needed to beat the Royal by 15 points to get the division’s top seed, but Tobe Decraene and Quentin Bonnaud ensured that wouldn’t happen with stellar offensive performances for one of the stronger sub-.500 teams in recent memory.
• Montreal also beat Toronto this weekend as all three Northeast teams had doubleheader weekends to close out the regular season.
• Oakland threw just nine turnovers in a comprehensive win over LA. Evan Magsig’s seven assists paced the Spiders’ offense.
• Chicago and Minnesota each beat Detroit this weekend as a playoff tune-up. Nate Astrom’s 3A/2G/5D game foretells a breakout for the Union’s Illinois star. Tristan Van de Moortele threw six assists from the D-line for Minnesota. Jake Felton managed to amass 66 assists this season for the Mechanix to top the league leaderboard.
• Alex Wilson Holliday’s seven goals were not enough for Dallas to beat Austin, but they did give him 60 for the season, which leads the league.
• Max Gibson’s 6A/4G game lit up that stat sheet, but could not earn San Diego a win against Oakland. Ultiworld’s own Jake Thorne ended with eight goals to lead the game.
• Seattle took down Portland in their playoff tune up. Ben Thoennes threw 12 assists for the Nitro though!¹

Mailbag

If you have a question about the UFA, send it in to [email protected] with UFA Mailbag in the subject line. You can also message me on Twitter at @StallSeven, or subscribers can DM me in the Ultiworld Discord.

I had a few asks for playoff predictions, so here’s my picks for the next two rounds of the playoffs.

• Atlanta over Carolina (who beat Austin)
• DC over New York (who beat Boston)
• Salt Lake over Seattle (who beat Oakland)
• Minnesota over Chicago (who beat Madison)

All four of these potential Championship Weekend participants could reasonably win the title. Salt Lake has an advantage playing at home, especially with the altitude adjustment other teams would need to make. DC and Atlanta have taken turns looking like the best team in the league at different points this season. Just getting to Championship Weekend is a long time coming for both teams. DC feels especially apt to win a title given the city’s success in the club circuit last season. Minnesota impressed last season at Championship Weekend, and I’m certain they will be able to compete at this level even on the road. I’d call them the longest shot of my four predicted teams to win the title, but they could absolutely make the final and few people would bat an eye…and once in the final, between New York’s and Detroit’s historic winning and losing streaks ending, this season has proven anything can happen.

UFA Week 13 Power Rankings

1. If you’re curious, that’s five short of Cole Sullivan’s 2016 single-game record ↩