A peek at the strength bid landscape and an analysis of how it could all shake out at the end of the season.
March 11, 2025 by Felicia Zheng in Analysis, Coverage, News
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Welcome back to Bidwatch, where we give you the latest in strength bid distribution predictions. First, a recap of how the bid process works:
- 20 teams in each D-I division go to Nationals
- 10 spots at Nationals are reserved for the winners of each of the 10 regional tournaments. These are called autobids, and they cannot move from one region to another.
- The remaining 10 bids are called ‘strength bids’ and are distributed to the highest ranked (according to a USAU algorithm) teams not to win their respective regional tournaments. Strength bids are fluid.
In theory, the shape of the strength bid distribution can range from completely balanced (two bids per region) to completely tilted (one region with 11 bids, and nine regions with only a single bid each).
What we aim to do is look at where things stand with each region’s bid total (autobid + potential strength bids) right now, and how that picture might change over the season’s final few weeks.
For all of our information, we are using the latest updates from Cody Mills’ invaluable frisbee-rankings.com, which offer an accurate (though unofficial) snapshot of the rankings.
D-I Women’s
Much like the migration of strength bids in the Women’s division this season, let’s move regionally from east to west.
New England
Current Bid Projection: 2-3
New England is the bastion of the East Coast, currently holding down the only non-Western strength bid. Northeastern Valkyries would sure like to make it a three-bid region though to give them a better shot against Nationals stalwarts Tufts and Vermont. The Valkyries are currently first out, just on the bubble, as they did themselves and their ranking no favors in Sunday bracket play of Stanford Invite. They’ll need to make up ground fast at East Coast Invite by notching quality wins against other bubble teams or find themselves on the outside looking in – just like in 2024.
Metro East
Current Bid Projection: 1
Unfortunately, I cannot report that my home region1 is even within striking distance of a strength bid. Cornell Roses carry the flag for the Metro East and currently sit at 35, a far cry from the bubble. Lock it in.
Atlantic Coast
Current Bid Projection: 1 – 2
Virginia Hydra are so back. After a strong early season start that has seen them post a 13-4 record, Virginia have found themselves in contention for a strength bid. However, the mathematical odds are stacked against them. For one, time is ticking down as they have only East Coast Invite left before the series. They also took a loss against fellow bubble team Northeastern at Queen City Tune Up, a result that will hurt them as the race comes down to the wire. Hydra will need to make every point count in their regular season closer and hope that’s enough to push them over the edge. William & Mary Cypress have an outside shot at a strength bid. Acknowledging that there aren’t many results on the table, Cypress have performed well. Depending on the strength of the rest of their schedule, they could play their way in by the postseason. It’s a long shot, but either Hydra or Cypress could do it. Just don’t bet on both. Oh, and lest we forget: UNC Pleiades are well within strength bid range and will certainly remain there, as would befit any four-time defending champion.
Southeast
Current Bid Projection: 1
If you thought the Metro East was in dire straits, scroll a little further down and see Georgia Tech Wreck holding the Southeast autobid. The Southeast hasn’t been a two-bid region since 2022, and that doesn’t seem to be changing any time soon. Lock it in.
Ohio Valley
Current Bid Projection: 1 – 2
The perennial problem of the Ohio Valley is the teams at the top have a lot of parity – just try to predict the best team in the region on any given day. While that parity makes for an interesting Sunday of regionals, it does hurt their chances of pushing two teams into bid-earning range by the end of April. Penn Venus currently hold the autobid and sit just out of the bubble, with Ohio State Fever and Ohio Stacked Cats close behind. If Penn have a great East Coast Invite and Ohio State are boosted through second order effects and…you get it. It would take a lot of hypotheticals to talk ourselves into a strength bid for the region, but it isn’t impossible.
Great Lakes
Current Bid Projection: 1
Michigan Flywheel are top dogs in the region rankings-wise and hold the autobid at #16, just in the bubble. Once Flywheel plays a few more games they’ll be able to drop the blowout eligible2 weights holding them down right now, Notre Dame Echo are in a much more precarious situation. It’s a long shot for them to pry a bid out of the iron grip of the Western regions at this point. Looks like another regional showdown is on the horizon for the perennially bid-starved Great Lakes.
North Central
Current Bid Projection: 1
I entered this season with so much hope for the North Central. This was supposed to be the year a Sydney French-led Wisconsin Bella Donna lived up to the hype, earned that strength bid, and took it all the way to Nationals! Unfortunately, after a lackluster Queen City Tune Up, that dream is looking more and more improbable. It’s not over until it’s over but even a strong ECI will likely not get the cheeseheads above the threshold unless they can rack up some serious points against juggernaut Tufts. Minnesota Matrix are not faring much better; they’ll have a chance at ECI to improve their record as well but it may be too little too late. And unfortunately for both of those teams, going to Nationals is almost impossible if they have to get through regional frontrunners Carleton Syzygy.
South Central
Current Bid Projection: 1 – 2
Texas Melee are not in a bad position to sneak in the back end of bid-earning range. Sitting at #26, they have about 10 spots to climb to keep their Nationals hopes alive. Difficult, but technically doable. A dominant showing at their annual home tournament Centex is the first step on that road for Melee. Missouri Terror Mizzou aren’t completely out of sight but probably out of the bid-earning picture. Colorado Quandary, of course, have a lock on the autobid.
Northwest
Projected Bid Range: 4 – 7
If we’ve learned anything this season, it’s that the Evil Empire is very much alive and well. Early season results indicate there will once again be a bidfest in the West. And yet, even the four strength bids the Northwest currently has on the table (UBC Thunderbirds, Oregon Fugue, Washington Element, Utah Spiral Jetty) may not be enough to feed the masses. Victoria Vikes and Western Washington Chaos are within inches of getting their own slice of the pie. They’ll have to do serious work against a tough field at Northwest Challenge. And of course, there’s always the question of what BYU CHI will do. (It’s too long a story to go into here, but if you need an explanation of the particulars of BYU, take a look at this article from 2019.)
Southwest
Current Bid Projection: 5 – 7
Even in a normally bid-wealthy region this is a high water year. 6 bids in hand in March? Absolute madness. The real challenge will be keeping them though. UC Davis Rogue and UC Santa Barbara Burning Skirts currently perch just within the cutoff. With most of their season done and the East Coast teams getting into full swing, their fate is basically out of their hands. Rogue and the Burning Skirts will wait with bated breath to see if they did enough to earn their ticket to Nationals. Meanwhile, UCLA BLU sit just out of the bubble but will have their chance at Centex to play their way in. Stanford Superfly, Cal Poly SLO SLOmotion, UC Santa Cruz Sol, and UC San Diego Dragon Coalition have pretty much sealed up their place in the pecking order, so they can look ahead to Southwest Regionals to make sure they keep their marbles in crunch time.
Men’s
The story in the men’s division is a wild bid scramble, with many regions angling for their share of the wealth.
New England
Current Bid Projection: 3 – 5
New England has always been a bid-hungry region, and things are trending up for them this year once again. If the postseason started now, they would send four teams to Nationals. Northeastern Huskies and Vermont Chill are in fairly good shape, and UMass Zoodisc, of course, are well above the mark. . It’s very likely that when the music stops, New England will walk away with three extra bids. All they need is a strong performance from the top group (including Tufts E-Men, who, since they haven’t played many games yet, have the least stable ranking) at Easterns to seal the deal.
Metro East
Current Bid Projection: 1
You’ve got to love the consistency of the region. Cornell Buds are once again earning the autobid all the way down at #62. They’ll hope to defend that sole bid against Ottawa, who ate their lunch in the finals last season but might not play a game before the Series.
Atlantic Coast
Current Bid Projection: 1 – 2
South Carolina Gamecocks are the closest competitors for an AC strength bid. They are currently 10 spots out, just above William & Mary Merry Men. With most of South Carolina and William & Mary’s regular seasons finished, it’s hard to see how either of them could sneak in the cut off outside of a surprise performance at Easterns. But hey, surprises happen! While both teams have garnered some hype this season, I wouldn’t count on the AC sending anyone but UNC Darkside back to Nationals this season.
Southeast
Current Bid Projection: 1-2
It’s coming down to the wire for Georgia Jojah and Georgia Tech Tribe, both of whom entered Smoky Mountain Invite determined to secure strength bid positioning before falling well short of the mark. As disappointing as they were, though, they’re still in range. They’ll run it back at Easterns: good performances from both will ensure the region gets enough food to eat, and a bad turn from either means that we’ll get a vicious clash for the sole bid in the Southeast regional final.
Ohio Valley
Current Bid Projection: 1 – 2
Similar to the region’s women’s division picture, the parity this season in the OV makes it difficult for teams to earn strength bids. 2024 Nationals qualifiers Pittsburgh En Sabah Nur and Penn State Spank currently sit side-by-side in the rankings, both a frustrating few spots short of their goal. The odds that they both make it in? Long, but not impossible. Penn State will have a chance to rack up some points during Easterns and we’ll see Pitt again there, too, before the dust settles.
Great Lakes
Current Bid Projection: 1
I’m not sure what to make of Chicago Fission’s lopsided Queen City Tune Up results right now but we should expect the ship to righten (i.e. sink) as they play more games. While they’ve pulled one over Tufts already this season, regression to the mean will probably drag them out of bid contention over the next few weeks. Michigan MagnUM have shown flashes of greatness this season (for instance, their win against Vermont at Florida Warm Up) and should rise to claim the region’s autobid by April. But they don’t have to, and they know it. Lock it in.
North Central
Current Bid Projection: 1 – 2
The North Central is well-positioned to net a strength bid this season. Lately it has been up to Minnesota, a Nationals frequent flyer, to earn the bid, but the Gophers have had a weak start to their spring. If the trend continues, it’ll be up to the Wisconsin Hodags to bring home the legendary Slab of Bacon3. The Hodags have already leapfrogged Minnesota in the rankings and, with much of their season left to play, should be able to catch up to the bubble teams provided they keep earning quality wins. It needs to start with a strong Centex.
South Central
Current Bid Projection: 2 – 3
The rankings currently paint a stark picture of the South Central pecking order: Colorado, Texas, and WashU at the top with the field far below. Colorado’s spot is secure after a strong Smoky Mountain Invite, and Texas have crucial wins against other strength bid hopefuls Penn State and Minnesota. There’s reason to be concerned about WashU given their losses to Penn State and South Carolina, but there’s still time for Contra to cement themselves in the rankings. It’s highly unlikely the region doesn’t walk out of this with at least one strength bid.
Northwest
Current Bid Projection: 3 – 6
In the Northwest, BYU CHI, Oregon Ego, Washington Sundodgers and Oregon State Beavers hold bids with UBC Thunderbirds, Utah Zion Curtain and Utah State Scotsmen close behind. BYU currently have the most secure position, so long as they play the postseason, which, as mentioned above in the women’s division section, is no guarantee. Oregon, Washington, and Oregon State are all fairly secure. Utah and Utah State have yet to have a rankings-shifting statement win against a top level opponent, which hurts their ability to break into the bubble. And UBC might have lost their best shot when they couldn’t finish better than fourth against a diminished Stanford Invite field. There’s many teams in the mix for the Northwest but it’s tough to tell how many will actually make it over the finish line. Regardless of how many end up in bid-earning range, the main takeaway is that Northwest Regionals could end up being the most exciting tournament in the country this year.
Southwest
Current Bid Projection: 2 – 3
Much like the South Central, there’s a clear division between potential bid earners and the field. Cal Poly SLO SLOCORE, Cal Ursa Major, and UC Santa Cruz Slugs are the relevant players in the region. A week ago, Slugs had a tenuous grasp on a bid, and Cal were in good shape. After Stanford Invite, though? Their positions are reversed. Cal are currently holding on to the final strength bid by 19 rankings points, but could secure it with a strong Easterns. UC Santa Cruz, meanwhile, did themselves a huge favor by winning out and are now likely ahead of the line for good. Three bids would feel comfortable for the region, while two would feel like a terrible shortage.
Author’s note: Boola Boola! ↩
‘Blowout eligible’ is actually a technical term here. See this handy-dandy explainer for a rundown. ↩
The Slab of Bacon was the trophy of the annual Wisconsin-Minnesota football game before it was lost in 1943 ↩
