With just two weeks left in the regular season, we take a look at the strength bid landscape--and predict how it's likely to all shake out at the end.
March 21, 2025 by Calvin Ciorba and Anna Browne in Analysis, Coverage
Ultiworld’s 2025 college coverage is presented by Spin Ultimate; all opinions are those of the author(s). Find out how Spin can get you, and your team, looking your best this season.
Welcome back to Bidwatch: D-III edition, where we give you the latest in strength bid distribution predictions. First, a recap of how the bid process works:
- 16 teams in each D-III division go to Nationals.
- 10 spots at Nationals are reserved for the winners of each of the 10 regional tournaments. These are called autobids, and they cannot move from one region to another.
- The remaining six bids are called “strength bids” and are distributed to the highest ranked teams (according to USAU’s algorithm) not to win their respective regional tournaments. Strength bids are fluid and can go to any region.
- Teams must play 10 sanctioned games in order to qualify to earn either an autobid or a strength bid for their region.
In recent history, several regions have cobbled up all of D-III’s strength bids. In the women’s division, that has been the North Central, New England, and Northwest regions. In the men’s division, regional powerhouses include the New England, South Central, and North Central.
What we aim to do is look at where things stand with each region’s bid total (autobid + potential strength bids) right now, and how that picture might change over the season’s final few weeks.
For all of our information, we are using the latest updates from Cody Mills’ invaluable frisbee-rankings.com, which offer an accurate (though unofficial) snapshot of the rankings1.
Disclaimer: This article was written prior to the release of USAU’s first set of official rankings for the 2025 college season. As is usual in the first release, some teams’ rankings differ greatly between the unofficial frisbee-rankings.com and USAU’s official rankings due to factors such as discrepancies in individual scores, a lack of connectivity, and player eligibility, which can change which games are considered for rankings.
D-III Women’s
While the division has the typical teams in the mix, the relative strength and security on the bubble is at its most uncertain in years. Most eastern teams have just one tournament under their belts, and several still have two tournaments left in the last two weekends of the regular season. Volatility is at an all-time high, and bids will likely be shifting up to the final hour.
Atlantic Coast
Current Bid Projection: 1
The Atlantic Coast region has two teams within earshot of strength bid territory, with Davidson at 15 and Richmond at 27. Both teams are within 200 points of the last strength bid currently held by Butler. If Davidson can find another tournament so they can get 10 games in and if Richmond has a solid showing at Atlantic Coast Open, then this could be a two-bid region. But that’s a lot of ifs, and Davidson is not currently listed on any tournament team lists. As such, the AC will likely remain a one-bid region.
Great Lakes
Current Bid Projection: 1
Surprisingly, the Great Lakes is currently a two-bid region. However, the second bid is held by Butler, a team in the same boat as Davidson. While they had a good showing at their first tournament, they are not slated to attend another tournament before the end of the season. That said, with Davenport firmly in the middle of the bid-earning pack, if Butler can get three more games in and perform fairly well, a two bid GL could be the surprise of the season. I wouldn’t get your hopes up though.
Metro East
Current Bid Projection: 1-3
Wesleyan is on an absolute tear. With a great combination of returning experienced players, a solid showing at a high level tournament, and a region ripe for the taking, the Vicious Circles are all but guaranteed to secure the autobid for the region.
Beyond that is where it gets a bit murkier.
With Rochester and Ithaca sitting in close proximity to the bubble, both teams need more games and a solid final showing to move up in the rankings. Both teams have a shot at Northeast Classic in two weekends, though all D-III teams in attendance sit well outside the bid bubble. For either Rochester or Ithaca to earn a bid, they will need to play the algorithm game and dominate opponents throughout the weekend. While it is possible for the Metro East to end up with three bids, the likely outcome is a one bid region–with Wesleyan perched atop.
New England
Current Bid Projection: 1-3
A one bid New England? That can’t be right. Just one season removed from a Middlebury three-peat and numerous strength bids to go around, and New England could be looking at just a single bid.
Williams is the current bid holder, but has less than a 100 point buffer to the bubble. With only five games down and two tournaments to come, Jersey Devil and Needle in a Ho-Stack, Williams is in a precarious position to lose what they have earned.
Looking further down the ratings, the next challenger is the aforementioned Middlebury. While not the same Middlebury squad we have seen in the past few years, they still have the experience and exposure that makes them a threat at the end of the season. Middlebury needs a strong performance at Northeast Classic to have a shot at a bid.
While Wellesley is already at 10 games, they sit in the same position as Middlebury and the Metro East hopefuls heading into Northeast Classic. With low algorithm rankings all-around, it is unlikely more than one strength bid shifts into Northeast Classic attendees following the weekend. Every consolation game matters.
North Central
Current Bid Projection: 2-3
While the names at the top of the region–Carleton College Eclipse, St. Olaf, and Macalester–are the same as last year, their relative security is much less safe. These bids are the North Central’s to lose. Eclipse will certainly be the autobid holder, as they sit just a stone’s throw away from earning a strength bid in D-I. Beyond that, the waters in the North Central are much more murky than typical.
St. Olaf and Macalester both came into the year as preseason favorites to make semifinals. However, both teams, particularly Macalester, have been unconvincing in their skill. While they had decent showings at Midwest Throwdown, St. Olaf couldn’t shake Washington University, losing all three meetings by a point margin of 28-3, and both teams fell to Missouri. Are these signs of the North Central being weak, or is it just typical upper midwest weather playing a factor in games? Luckily, we have the opportunity to see both teams in action again to close out the season.
St. Olaf leads a strong D-III contingent alongside Wesleyan and Haverford/Bryn Mawr at East Coast Invite. If Vortex can beat the teams below them and stay in games with teams above them, they should easily hold onto their bid. Macalester, on the other hand, is in a much more precarious spot. As the top seed at Old Capitol Open, Macalester needs to perform well and make a semifinals run to avoid slumping in the bid picture. After fellow North Central bid hopefuls Michigan Tech dropped two games against Davenport last weekend, Macalester can use a likely matchup with Davenport as a litmus test for big earning and the series.
Speaking of Michigan Tech, they are amongst a group of hopefuls trying to earn a fourth bid that includes Winona State and Grinnell. Grinnell won’t hit 10 games, and Michigan Tech played their last game at Davenport Spring Skirmish last weekend, so all hope lies on Winona State to perform well and spoil another region’s hopes. The likely result is three bids for the North Central, but weird weather conditions in Iowa could pull the third bid away in a flash.
Northwest
Projected Bid Range: 3
Unlike their eastern counterparts, the Northwest is sitting in a very comfortable place. With multiple tournaments under the belts of most of the region, Whitman, Lewis & Clark, and Portland currently sit comfortably within the bid bubble. All three teams have almost a 400 point buffer to where the final bid currently sits. With no more D-III competition happening on the west coast, this region can sit back and watch the chaos unfold.
Ohio Valley
Current Bid Projection: 1-3
We have been waiting for the Kenyon bubble to burst for months. With just two weeks left in the regular season, including a huge weekend of connectivity last weekend, it is becoming more and more clear that Kenyon they played the game to perfection. Having dominant results against slightly worse teams with minimal connectivity is one way to earn a bid. Is it still possible that the bubble bursts? Absolutely, this is D-III after all.
Outside of Kenyon, the other bid favorite is preseason semifinal pick by four of our staff members, Haverford/Bryn Mawr. Sitting comfortably at the 9th slot in the algorithm, Haverford/Bryn Mawr have one more tournament, East Coast Invite. With strong D-I and D-III teams across the board, this tournament is likely to only help D-III bid hopefuls, as solid results against better teams will boost ratings. Speaking of, Lehigh is likely to benefit the most from their attendance at East Coast Invite. Currently a little over 100 points out of the bid picture, if Lehigh performs well, especially in consolation play, they could snag a bid in the nick of time.
Given the volatility in this region, two bids is the most likely outcome. It is possible for Kenyon’s bubble to burst and for Lehigh to barely miss the bid cutoff, but most likely the Ohio Valley will find themselves with a well-deserved strength bid.
South Central
Current Bid Projection: 1
While it is theoretically possible for Rice or Trinity to spoil Centex and find their way into the bid picture, the likelihood is low given their placement in T2. Rice sits in the better position, going in with a 2-0 record against Trinity. However, the relative strength within T2 and the structure of the bracket is doing everything it can to prevent Rice’s goal. Now, if they can decisively win all their pool play matchups and win the ninth-place bracket, there is a chance. Just not quite enough of a chance to have a range on the bid prediction.
Southeast
Current Bid Projection: 1-2
Union (Tennessee) and Berry will see each other this weekend at Moxie Madness, coming in as two of the strongest teams at the tournament. Union sits just inside while Berry sits just outside of the bid cutoff. Both teams need solid showings with plenty of dominant performances to hope to earn a second bid, though Berry has the luxury of two more tournaments to go. With back-to-back weekends of travel, Berry heads to North Carolina for Needle in a Ho-Stack to close out their season. This is the most likely two bid Southeast we have seen in years. Like most of the division, this will come down to the wire.
Southwest
Current Bid Projection: 1
Occidental and Claremont are the definition of rivals. They always have solid enough seasons for both teams to show up on our power rankings at least once over the course of the season, but they are never quite solid enough to earn a second bid for the region. This year is no different.
DIII-Men’s
Atlantic Coast
Current Bid Projection: 1-3
The AC is in quite a precarious spot as of now, making it the most interesting region to follow in these next two weeks. While Elon has pretty much locked up their bid at this point, the bubble teams add drama. UNC Asheville, after their surprise performance at River City Showdown, currently holds a second bid for the AC. However, they sit just 40 Elo points above the last bid-earning team, making their performance at D-III Easterns critical. With only one tournament played so far, every result carries weight.
Richmond, a perennial bid earner for the AC, actually sits outside the bid-earning range by 15 Elo points. A good D-III Easterns could easily catapult the Spidermonkeys back into a bid, but a bad performance will keep them on the outside. The stakes are high for both UNCA and Richmond—three bids are possible, but so is just one. Given Elon’s current form, neither team wants to rely on winning the AC to qualify for Nationals.
Great Lakes
Current Bid Projection: 1
A new year, the same story for the Great Lakes. Davenport looks like the class of the division right now, sitting third in the algorithm rankings. Their next closest competitor is Butler, who lags 20 spots behind. A second Great Lakes bid is simply not possible, meaning teams will need a miracle to try and take down Davenport at Regionals.
Metro East
Current Bid Projection: 1-2
It feels wrong to even write this, but for maybe the first time (excluding 2021 COVID Nationals), the Metro East has the opportunity to earn two bids. As of now, the region only has one with Rochester only 40 Elo points away from Bowdoin. Meanwhile, Wesleyan is less than two Elo points away from Rochester. As both teams have only played one tournament so far, the Piggies and Nietzsch Factor have an opportunity to play well enough to jump into bid-earning range by the end of the season. With Wesleyan heading down to D-III Easterns, and Rochester playing the Salt City Classic with Williams in attendance, a two-bid Metro East is certainly in the cards.
New England
Current Bid Projection: 2-4
As always, the New England region is the class of the division in 2025. Middlebury, Williams, and Bowdoin all currently have a bid. Middlebury remains a perennial bid earner, and Williams all but has one. The only reason to be concerned for WUFO: they’ve only played seven games, and are playing back-to-back tournaments these next two weeks. However, their results indicate they will all but likely earn a bid once again.
It gets most interesting looking at Bowdoin and Bates. Bowdoin has the very last bid spot, sitting a mere 15 Elo points above Richmond. The most concerning stat for Bowdoin, as their Strength of Schedule is only in the 800s, 400 below all other bid-earning teams. This means Bowdoin is in a connectivity bubble and the bid may be fraudulent. This doesn’t mean they can’t earn a bid, however, as we’ve seen plenty of teams beat up bad teams and earn a bid in the past. They are playing the PBR State Open this weekend, against teams with connectivity like Bates, Brandeis, and Boston University. A good weekend may keep them in bid range, but don’t be surprised if Clown loses their bid by Sunday.
Bowdoin losing out doesn’t mean the New England can’t still earn three bids. Bates, who we at Ultiworld predicted to look really good this year, is in the opposite side of Bowdoin. They are in a bad connectivity bubble thanks to an extremely windy tournament with few connected teams, dragging Orange Whip down to 181 in the algorithm. Bates fans don’t fear though, because Orange Whip are playing in the PBR State Open this weekend and D-III Easterns next weekend. If Orange Whip play like they did at Nationals last year, I fully expect them to be close to earning a bid.
The next two weeks are crucial for determining whether New England gets two bids or as many as four.
North Central
Current Bid Projection: 1-2
The North Central is the most puzzling region, currently sitting at two bids. Despite St. Olaf being in the low 100s algorithmically before Centex, a solid weekend from Iowa State had backorder effects that skyrocketed the Berzerkers 30 spots up the algorithm rankings into bid range. With the lowest Strength of Schedule rating right now of bid-earning teams besides Bowdoin, the ‘Zerks will need to prove their bid at Huck Finn next weekend.
Meanwhile, CHOP look like they’ve locked up their bid with a great regular season. On the flip side, Macalester’s disappointing results will not let them jump enough for another bid, even with a good Huck Finn. Therefore, it will all come down to St. Olaf’s performance in St. Louis.
Northwest
Projected Bid Range: 2
The Northwest continues to be a stable two-bid region, with the same teams each year. Both Lewis & Clark and Whitman have played fantastic all year, and as of now easily have bids for the Northwest. As both teams have already competed in two tournaments, it would be shocking for their bids to switch up. Puget Sound may play spoiler at Regionals, but simply sit too far outside bid-earning range, 200 Elo points away.
Ohio Valley
Current Bid Projection: 1
Despite their surprise second bid last year, the two-bid Ohio Valley dream is dead for 2025. Franciscan sits atop the rankings currently, looking below on teams like Oberlin and Dickinson. Although Dickinson looks somewhat close to the bid-earning range, their Strength of Schedule is only 883, 400 below most other top teams. The Dumptrucks would need a heroic performance at D-III Easterns to sniff at a second bid. Meanwhile, Oberlin and Cedarville just don’t look as talented last year, and sit too far outside to have any chance at jumping up.
South Central
Current Bid Projection: 1-3
After a rough start to the year for Oklahoma Christian and Colorado College, they both leapt up in the rankings thanks a great Centex. Oklahoma Christian’s first tournament struggles can now be chalked up to terrible weather, as they only lost to great D-I teams in Texas and Utah State last weekend. They have one more tournament, and the question isn’t whether they’ll keep their bid, but how much higher than can go up in the rankings.
Wasabi’s two surprise wins against Whitman and Middlebury have basically propped up their entire season, and now they once again have earned a bid for the South Central. Sitting in the second-to-last spot and with their regular season now done, they will surely be refreshing results every hour next weekend. Teams like Richmond, Bates, and Wesleyan could jump, but for now, Colorado College is in a solid spot.
Missouri S&T and Colorado Mines are about 80 Elo points away from Bowdoin. It would take quite the effort, as both teams have already played a lot of games–but they theoretically could jump into bid earning range. The South Central is always a bloodbath of a region, and these teams will want all the bids they can get.
Southeast
Current Bid Projection: 1
If Ave Maria competed in the D-III division this year, the Southeast would be pretty interesting. Unfortunately (but fortunately for other Southeast teams) they chose to go the D-I path, making a one-bid Southeast the only plausible option once again.
Southwest
Current Bid Projection: 1
No surprises here—Claremont and Occidental are far from bid contention, ensuring another one-bid Southwest year.
Note, for D-III especially, some schools are not tagged with the “D-III” tag, and thus do not show up when you filter for just D-III schools. As such, the snapshot on frisbee-rankings.com may exclude some D-III teams ↩
