On the tenth day of Christmas Ultiworld gave to me...Nationals bid predictions!
December 21, 2025 by Theresa Diffendal, Edward Stephens, Josh Katz, Calvin Ciorba and TJ Lee in Preview
Ultiworld’s coverage of the 2026 college season is presented by Spin Ultimate; all opinions are those of the author(s). Find out how Spin can get you, and your team, looking your best this season.
It’s time to unwrap some presents as we introduce the 12 Days of College Ultimate. For the next 12 days, we will be releasing one gift per day, though don’t count on getting any holiday fowl: it’s all college ultimate. From highlight videos to player chatter to a season predictions, we’ve got a little something for everyone.
On the tenth day of the 12 Days of College Ultimate, we’re breaking down bid predictions for every division! Who are the lucky teams going to the big show?
Division I
Here’s a quick bid primer for anyone unfamiliar with the system:
- There are 20 bids to Nationals in each of the D-I divisions.
- Each of the 10 regions gets one autobid no matter how well or poorly its teams perform during the regular season.
- The remaining 10 bids are distributed to the regions with the highest ranked teams according the USAU algorithm1 after the top-ranked team from each region (read: the autobid) is removed from consideration.
- For the first time ever, there is a limit to the number of strength bids that can be awarded to any particular region. The limit is four strength bids. Combined with the automatic bid, the limit for each region is five bids to Nationals.
Note: For the purposes of this exercise, we will assume that if2 BYU CHI earn a bid for the Northwest in either division, they will forfeit it. This is by no means a safe assumption.
Women’s Division
Single Bid Locks: Competition is heating up all over the back-end of the bubble thanks to multiple Nationals-quality teams in every region in 2026… except for one. Metro East, we love you. Early returns suggest Cornell Wild Roses repeat.
Strength Bid Locks: The list of regions who are locks to earn a strength bid should be very familiar at this point, almost tiresomely so. Chalk up at least one for New England thanks to the continuing excellence of Vermont Ruckus and Tufts Ewo. With three teams (UBC Thunderbirds, Oregon Fugue, Washington Element) entrenched in the semis picks in our in-house predictions market, the Northwest should pull at least two extra passes to Rockford. And the Southwest, whose excellence last year essentially forced USAU’s hand on bid restrictions, might hit the max again in 2026. Let’s give them some wiggle room to start though and only guarantee two strength bids thanks to UC Santa Cruz Sol, Stanford Superfly, and Cal Poly SLO SLOmotion – but there’s potential for more.
The Remaining Strength Bids: It’ll be a wide open field for the last five strength bids as nine different regions fight over them. In a just world, here’s how it would shake out. One each for the Great Lakes (Notre Dame Echo and Michigan Flywheel), North Central (Carleton Syzygy and Minnesota Matrix), Atlantic Coast (UNC Pleiades and Virginia Hydra), Southeast (Georgia Athena and Florida Fuel), and South Central (Colorado Quandary and Texas Melee). (Apologies to the Ohio Valley, who will produce multiple bubble teams but ultimately fail to get two teams high enough.)
But we all know this isn’t a just world, right? It’s a world governed by the impossible whims of the Pacific coast. Between the Northwest and Southwest, some of those extra bids are going to float westward. The Northwest will get one more between Utah Spiral Jetty and Victoria Vikes, bringing their total to three. The Southwest, meanwhile, can count on two more between UC San Diego Dragon Coalition, UC Davis Rogue, UCLA BLU, and UC Santa Barbara Burning Skirts, for a full share of four bids. That means there are only two bids left in play, dropping the Southeast and North Central into customary one-bid territory. It’s a musical chairs toss-up of two strength bids for the final two regions… let’s say that this is the year of Texas and Virginia, leading the Atlantic Coast and South Central back into multi-bid territory and setting up some fun regional battles as they try to hold on to what they earned.
Predicted Bid Distribution:
- AC – 2 (UNC, Virginia)
- GL – 1 (Michigan)
- ME – 1 (Cornell)
- NE – 2 (Tufts, Vermont)
- NC – 1 (Carleton)
- NW – 4 (UBC, Washington, Oregon, Victoria)
- OV – 1 (Penn)
- SC – 2 (Colorado, Texas)
- SE – 1 (Florida)
- SW – 5 (Stanford, UC Santa Cruz, Cal Poly, UC Davis, UC San Diego)
Men’s Division
Single Bid Locks: It will come as no surprise to see the Metro East once again topping the list of the one-bid regions. It will at least be a little different as Cornell Buds get back ahead of Ottawa Gee-Gees in the rankings (no guarantees Cornell can close the deal at regionals, though). They’ll be joined by the Southeast, where an ailing Georgia Jojah likely won’t be able to keep up their long track record of success. Georgia Tech Tribe will be the only team playing well enough during the regular season to be in bid consideration.
Strength Bid Locks: There are fewer totally dominant regions in the men’s division than the women’s. Here’s what we know, though: the South Central will grab at least one extra ticket because of the continued excellence of Colorado Mamabird and Texas TUFF, and the Northwest can bank bids for Oregon Ego, Western Washington Dirt, and Oregon State Beavers right now – two strength bids for those of you doing the math. Everything gets a little squishier after that.
The Remaining Strength Bids: Seven strength bids will be up for grabs, and there will be bubble teams in all eight non-single bid regions, including the two that already have a strength bid sewn up. These bubble teams include: UNC Wilmington Seamen and William & Mary Merry Men (Atlantic Coast); the newly D-I Davenport Panthers (Great Lakes); Vermont Chill, Brown Brownian Motion, Tufts E-Men, and Northeastern Huskies (New England); Wisconsin Hodags and Minnesota Ultimate (North Central); Utah Zion Curtain, Victoria Vikes, and UBC Thunderbirds (Northwest); Pittsburgh En Sabah Nur (Ohio Valley); WashU Contra (South Central); UC Santa Cruz Slugs, Cal Ursa Major (Southwest).
The many, many moving parts make for a somewhat unconfident outlook, but here’s what comes through most clearly: Pitt return to their former glory to join Penn State Spank from the Ohio Valley, WashU don’t quite return enough of their 2025 talent to join Texas and Colorado in the South Central, the Slugs slime their way into another bid for the Southwest (alongside the stalwart Cal Poly SLO SLOCORE), and both Vermont and Brown do enough with their strengths of schedule to join UMass Zoodisc in New England.
That leaves three bids left to divvy up. Davenport makes a push and doesn’t quite get there, setting up a battle with the bid-earning Michigan MagnUM for sole possession of the Great Lakes. Cal falls short of earning #ferda Southwest but challenge UC Santa Cruz and Cal Poly at regionals. Utah continue their upward trend during the regular season to add a third strength bid for the Northwest (setting up a tricky defense against both Canadian teams at regionals). And in the shock of the century, the Atlantic Coast pries the final bid away from both Wisconsin and Minnesota (Carleton CUT will be untouchable at regionals) thanks to a peak season from UNC Wilmington, who are doing their best to join UNC Darkside at Nationals once again.
(If I get even half the strength bid predictions right this year, it’s a huge success.)
Predicted Bid Distribution:
- AC – 2 (UNC, UNC Wilmington)
- GL – 1 (Michigan)
- ME – 1 (Cornell)
- NE – 3 (UMass, Vermont, Brown)
- NC – 1 (Carleton)
- NW – 4 (Oregon, Oregon State, Western Washington, Utah)
- OV – 2 (Penn State, Pitt)
- SC – 2 (Colorado, Texas)
- SE – 1 (Georgia Tech)
- SW – 2 (Cal Poly, UC Santa Cruz)
Division III
Men’s Division
‘Tis the season for premature predictions folks. Grab some eggnog and buckle up as Calvin Ciorba and Josh Katz set a line for each D-III men’s region’s bid chances, accompanied by reasoning for the taking the over/under. A quick rundown of how bids differ in D-III versus D-I: with a smaller Nationals, only 16 bids are up for grabs, 10 automatic bids and six strength bids, as opposed to D-I’s 20. And to promote regional growth, no region is allowed more than four bids (three strength bids plus the auto bid). Sleigh bells in the air, bad takes everywhere.
Atlantic Coast – 2.5 (Last year: 2)
Calvin’s take: Over. Elon’s looking for a title this year and will easily earn a bid. You can never count out the system of Matt Graves and the Richmond development– Eric Harnisher and Anthony Longo will bring the Spidermonkeys to Rockford. Lastly, it could be UNCA’s year after lots of the Mudpuppies played high-level club this summer.
Josh’s take: Under. In fact, I’ll go way under. The AC will return to one bid status in 2026. Richmond, you had a nice run, but without handler extraordinaire Calvin Ciorba, the Spidermonkeys won’t earn a bid this year. The question of whether or not Richmond will still make Nationals is left to the reader.
Prediction: 2
Great Lakes – 1.5 (Last year: 2)
Calvin’s take: Over. Hillsdale surprised a lot of people and won a couple of games at Nationals, which would light a fire for them to earn a bid this year. Rising Asbury could also earn another bid, who knows. Lastly, there’s always the chance Davenport reverses its decision to move up and stays at D-III for one more year.
Josh’s take: Under. Even if we get another Asbury situation, Davenport is (we think) choosing the D-I pathway in 2026, meaning the Great Lakes would need two Asbury-like explosions to get a second bid. Or an unexpected drop to D-III due to the new 10,000 student rule. Either way, it’s not happening.
Prediction: 1
Metro East – 1.5 (Last year: 2)
Calvin’s take: Under. The graduations are going to hit the Metro East simply too hard. Wesleyan graduated their three best players Daniel Glickman, Jack Noble, and Judah Hoffenberg while Rochester lost their do-it-all guy David Leder. Unfortunately, I predict Cameron Lowe’s workload will be too much to lead the Piggies all himself.
Josh’s take: Over. David Leder may have graduated, but Rochester still has Cameron Lowe to propel them forwards. As for Wesleyan, Malen Cheung and the legendary Bryan Jones will get the Metro East another two bid year and force us all to consider the validity of the Metro Least jokes.
Prediction: 2
North Central – 1.5 (Last year: 1)
Calvin’s take: Over. I know we said it last year and it did not pan out whatsoever, but North Central has a great shot to be a three-bid region this year. CHOP look fantastic, St Olaf is reloading with talent, and this is the Suelflow twins’ last chance to get Macalester to Nationals before they graduate. Add in new D-III programs like Minnesota-Duluth and Wisconsin-Eau Claire, this region is going to be quite good.
Josh’s take: Under. St. Olaf was robbed of a second North Central bid at the last second last year. It’s unlikely that lightning strikes twice, especially if Macalester play to their potential in 2026, but stranger things have happened in D-III.
Prediction: 2
New England – 2.5 (Last year: 2)
Calvin’s take: Under. Middlebury will earn a bid, so we can put that out of the way. However, the problem with New England ultimate is that cold and bad weather will always ruin a couple of results in the algorithm (eg Bates’ 6-5 loss to Colby and Bowdoin’s 11-10 loss to Rhode Island) Add in the fact Charlie Tantum, Daniel Snider, and Cole Fairfield all graduated, and Williams, Bates, Bowdoin will most likely cannibalize a third bid once again.
Josh’s take: Over. It’s hard for any region to earn three bids in D-III, with just six strength bids total up for grabs. If any region is going to do it though, New England is probably atop that list. Middlebury is a lock for a bid. Williams has a pair of former ROTYium nominees in Wade Buchheit and Adam Kohn, and Bowdoin has one in spirit in Zach Widmyer, who finished fourth in voting last year in a stacked rookie class.
Prediction: 2
Northwest – 1.5 (Last year: 2)
Josh’s take: Under. Too much talent left both Lewis & Clark and Whitman after last year to feel good about both teams’ chances of earning a bid. Someone will suffer an injury crisis or lose players to a poorly-timed exam during a big tournament. It’ll make for an incredible regional final though.
Calvin’s take: Over. Sure Josh, both teams graduated a lot of key contributors, but so has literally the entire division. Lewis & Clark and Whitman have been cornerstone members of the D-III division in the 2020s and their systems are too strong to not make it back. Plus with Puget Sound on the rise, this could even be a three bid region this year.
Prediction: 2
Ohio Valley – 1.5 (Last year: 1)
Calvin’s take: Under. Ohio Valley is like the Atlantic Coast Men’s D-I. There’s a ton of solid teams right outside the bid cutoff, but no one is ever good enough to earn that second bid. With Oberlin graduating Ben Fuguet, this makes it even harder
Josh’s take: Over. Like Calvin said, the OV always has a couple teams right outside the bid cutoff. Who says one of them can’t sneak their way onto the other side of the line in 2026?3
Prediction: 1
South Central – 2.5 (Last year: 2)
Calvin’s take: Over. It will be difficult, but it can be done. Oklahoma Christian still has enough firepower to squeeze a bid and Colorado College is finally going to make it back after a two-year hiatus. One of Colorado Mines or Missouri S&T have a fair shot to earn the last strength bid.
Josh’s take: Under. The depth that once defined the South Central’s status as D-III’s best region has started to graduate without the proper fill from new recruits. OC has regressed from their sky-high debut at the start of the decade. Colorado College doesn’t have the depth. Missouri S&T graduated their entire offensive production from Nationals. It’s more likely this is a one-bid region than a three-bid region in 2026.
Prediction: 2
Southeast – 1.5 (Last year: 1)
Calvin’s take: Over. With the D-III eligibility moved up to 10,000 students, Alabama-Huntsville is once again eligible for the division. We don’t know what they’ll choose yet, but if they join they have a great chance of heading to Rockford alongside a developing Berry team from last year who are only getting better.
Josh’s take: Under. Even if UAH decides to drop back to the D-III ranks, regional winner Berry wasn’t a bid earner last year and lost Ian Van Order. Unless there’s a stud rookie somewhere in the Southeast that we don’t know about yet, this will once again be a one-bid region.
Prediction: 1
Southwest – 1.5 (Last year: 1)
Calvin’s take: Under. Yea. No.
Josh’s take: Over. Three teams. Two bids. Cal Tech pull off the greatest upset of all time and go to Nationals. Will it happen? No.4 Would it be glorious? Absolutely. Ultimate gods, please. I beg you.
Prediction: 1
Women’s Division
Single Bid Locks: Atlantic Coast, Great Lakes, Southeast, Southwest
While the potential addition of schools like William & Mary, Santa Clara, and more add pressure to the mix, I don’t see any additional teams in any region in the bid-earning range. For now Richmond have the slight edge in the Atlantic Coast, Davenport should be able to survive another tight Great Lakes race, Union should get back in from the Southeast, and Claremont should survive the Southwest.
Strength Bid Locks: North Central
This year, I’m only gonna safely assign one bid lock, and even then it is going to a region that is hoping for three minimum. Macalester, St Olaf, and Carleton will easily get two bids, but can they all keep up a strong enough season to hold onto a third?
The Remaining Strength Bids:
This is where things get tricky. Like all divisions, I have nowhere near enough bids to go around. Mount Holyoke will need another bid in New England unless they want to run through a single elimination gauntlet come Sunday of regionals, capping it off with a showdown against Middlebury.
Lewis & Clark and Whitman will be hoping to get more bids their way, but with Puget Sound having a taste of Nationals after missing the last two years and a Portland squad looking to bounce back, the Northwest will have to do a lot this season. Unless they can pull off the elusive four bid region, expect some tight games at regionals.
Ohio Valley has a huge juggernaut in Haverford/Bryn Mawr, so teams like Kenyon, Oberlin, and the rest of the region will hope to get another bid going their way. Just northeast of them is the Metro East where Rochester should be able to get a bid in, and have the easiest motivator: Earn the bid or knock out the defending national champs early, and continue the most twisted D-III tradition.5
The last region to take a look at is the South Central. Rice, Colorado College, and Trinity all duke it out every year. With Colorado College looking to get back in the Dance, a second and maybe third bid could make it over to these teams. If not look for another intense confregional final.
Predicted Bid Distribution:
- AC – 1 (Richmond)
- GL – 1 (Davenport)
- ME – 2 (Wesleyan, Rochester)
- NE – 2 (Middlebury, Mount Holyoke)
- NC – 3 (St. Olaf, Carleton, Macalester)
- NW – 3 (Portland, Whitman, Lewis & Clark)
- OV – 1 (Haverford/Bryn Mawr)
- SC – 1 (Colorado College)
- SE – 1 (Union)
- SW – 1 (Claremont)
*When ↩
It’ll be Franciscan and Cedarville earning bids, Kenyon and Messiah taking them. ↩
The Cal Tech part, at least. Technically, both Claremont and Occidental could earn bids. Almost certainly, they won’t, but they could. In theory. ↩
That being the reigning national champions missing out on Nationals altogether the following year ↩
