We Approximated The USAU College Rankings: See The Early Bid Picture

We crunched the numbers of the USAU algorithm.

March 2, 2016 by Charlie Eisenhood, Cody Mills and Scott Dunham in Analysis with 45 comments

Ultiworld’s Cody Mills has put together a statistical tool to approximate the USA Ultimate rankings by using publicly available score data and applying the algorithm that USA Ultimate uses to run their numbers. While the results below are unofficial and could include some scores which are liable to be altered or removed from the official rankings, they are a good representation of the what the current rankings would look like.

Throughout the remainder of the college season, we will be running this USAU ranking approximation and, later, applying different algorithms and/or ranking methods to test possible alternatives to the existing algorithm.

For more information about the USA Ultimate algorithm, ranking system, and some of its perceived flaws, see this FAQ from last year.

Men’s Division

The rankings below include only teams with at least five sanctioned games. This is the same cutoff that USAU will use on their initial rankings next week.

Rank	Team	Region	Rating
#1	Stanford	SW	2191.71
#2	North Carolina-Wilmington	AC	2049.03
#3	Massachusetts	NE	1981.43
#4	Florida	SE	1923.17
#5	Washington	NW	1898.89
#6	North Carolina	AC	1897.14
#7	Oregon	NW	1894.33
#8	Victoria	NW	1856.31
#9	Minnesota	NC	1855.94
#10	British Columbia	NW	1825.46
#11	Wisconsin	NC	1822.66
#12	Carleton College	NC	1807.85
#13	Michigan	GL	1779.66
#14	Pittsburgh	OV	1761.03
#15	Harvard	NE	1702.15
#16	Texas A&M	SC	1701.78
#17	Georgia	SE	1701.45
#18	Colorado	SC	1688.77
#19	Texas Christian	SC	1688.38
#20	California-Santa Barbara	SW	1642.05
#21	Arkansas	SC	1627.34
#22	Ohio State	OV	1626.67
#23	Virginia Commonwealth	AC	1624.57
#24	Cal Poly-SLO	SW	1622.68
#25	Purdue	GL	1595.29
#26	LSU	SE	1579.14
#27	South Carolina	AC	1570.49
#28	Texas	SC	1569.65
#29	Cincinnati	OV	1566.54
#30	Georgia Tech	SE	1561.33
#31	Oregon State	NW	1559.81
#32	Virginia Tech	AC	1550.98
#33	Utah	NW	1546.61
#34	James Madison	AC	1528.13
#35	Brown	NE	1508.71
#36	Colorado State	SC	1506.66
#37	Auburn	SE	1505.10
#38	North Carolina State	AC	1500.55
#39	Maryland	AC	1490.43
#40	Case Western Reserve	OV	1476.09
#41	Brigham Young	NW	1470.55
#42	Whitman	NW	1456.63
#43	Connecticut	ME	1455.56
#44	John Brown	SC	1440.37
#45	California-San Diego	SW	1436.83
#46	Western Washington	NW	1434.71
#47	Central Florida	SE	1431.58
#48	Ohio	OV	1426.05
#49	Florida-B	SE	1422.23
#50	Florida State	SE	1418.00

Implied Bid Allocation

Atlantic Coast: 2 bids
Great Lakes: 1 bid
Metro East: 1 bid
New England: 2 bids
North Central: 3 bids
Northwest: 4 bids
Ohio Valley: 1 bid
South Central: 3 bids
Southeast: 2 bids
Southwest: 1 bid

Discussion

Let’s begin with some caveats: not only are these rankings being considered quite early, they are also an approximation of the actual results. The first true USA Ultimate rankings will be released next Wednesday. There is a lot of season left and many of these results will start to settle in after Stanford Invite and Tally Classic this weekend.

Still, there are some eye-popping results in this first look. The Northwest is currently sitting with four bids, thanks to a strong performance from Victoria at the Santa Barbara Invite and even better results from Oregon, Washington, and UBC at SBI and Presidents’ Day Invite. The South Central has three bids, but Texas is sitting all the way back at #28. Right now, the region is relying on the undefeated #19 TCU to haul in that third bid.

And the Southeast, which pulled down four bids last year, is currently staring at only two, with 2015 powerhouses Central Florida and FSU sitting at #47 and #50, respectively. And, once again, the Southwest is painfully close to two bids, but UCSB is sitting just outside the cutoff at #20 and Cal Poly SLO not far behind them at #24.

It goes without saying that this weekend’s tournaments — particularly the Stanford Invite — will have a huge impact on the rankings. The Southwest could really help themselves; they have a realistic shot at three bids. The South Central also could be in for a big year. If TCU stays hot and #21 Arkansas or Texas gets some big wins, they will climb the ladder. And don’t forget: Missouri hasn’t played any games yet but are ranked in the Ultiworld Top 25.

Finally, can the Southeast climb out of the hole? It’s a long road back for FSU and UCF. Both teams will have a chance to chip into their deficit with strong results this weekend on opposite coasts.

Women’s Division

The rankings below include teams with at least one sanctioned game. We used a lower cutoff to more appropriately rank Whitman, who blew out so many teams at their first and only tournament that they did not meet the five game cutoff. The rest of the rankings are largely unchanged using n=1 or n=5.

Rank	Team	Region	Rating
#1	Central Florida	SE	2775.51
#2	Stanford	SW	2499.45
#3	Oregon	NW	2407.91
#4	UCLA	SW	2398.98
#5	Whitman	NW	2398.96
#6	Minnesota	NC	2331.80
#7	Pittsburgh	OV	2297.74
#8	Michigan	GL	2200.13
#9	Ohio State	OV	2155.74
#10	Washington	NW	2150.00
#11	Virginia	AC	2149.45
#12	Notre Dame	GL	2118.09
#13	California	SW	2094.87
#14	Wisconsin	NC	2038.86
#15	Colorado College	SC	2036.63
#16	Colorado	SC	2029.40
#17	California-Davis	SW	2025.06
#18	Tufts	NE	2010.54
#19	Western Washington	NW	2007.34
#20	California-San Diego	SW	2002.26
#21	Maryland	AC	2000.01
#22	Southern California	SW	1987.20
#23	North Carolina	AC	1979.75
#24	Texas	SC	1974.41
#25	Penn State	OV	1944.21
#26	Florida State	SE	1901.62
#27	Northeastern	NE	1884.72
#28	North Carolina-Wilmington	AC	1872.54
#29	Kansas	SC	1824.76
#30	Liberty	AC	1808.89
#31	Clemson	AC	1793.43
#32	Victoria	NW	1760.72
#33	Dartmouth	NE	1742.79
#34	Delaware	AC	1739.58
#35	Georgia Tech	SE	1713.18
#36	Florida	SE	1684.26
#37	Northwestern	GL	1638.35
#38	Carleton College	NC	1620.79
#39	Colorado State	SC	1618.18
#40	James Madison	AC	1576.19
#41	MIT	NE	1566.80
#42	Case Western Reserve	OV	1541.23
#43	Washington University	SC	1530.19
#44	Auburn	SE	1528.96
#45	Cal Poly-SLO	SW	1519.21
#46	Akron	OV	1492.29
#47	Georgia	SE	1481.68
#48	Iowa	NC	1425.86
#49	Georgetown	AC	1425.77
#50	Pennsylvania	OV	1411.15

Implied Bid Allocation

Atlantic Coast: 1 bid
Great Lakes: 2 bids
Metro East: 1 bid
New England: 1 bid
North Central: 2 bids
Northwest: 4 bids
Ohio Valley: 2 bids
South Central: 2 bids
Southeast: 1 bids
Southwest: 4 bids

Discussion

Obviously, these rankings are early and approximated, and while they’ll give us a pretty good idea of what the picture is, the exact details might move a little. As more results come in, especially connective results that Centex, Stanford Invite, and Northwest Challenge provide, that will change the rankings, as will the decay function for January and February results.

Another big change to the rankings? The addition of British Columbia. Having not yet played, with their planned debut at the Stanford Invite likely to be impacted by weather, UBC will surely shove some teams down. That also means the Northwest’s four bids could move back up to five, as it was last season, although Western Washington is pretty close to the bubble as is.

The big winner is clearly the Southwest, who has wrangled four bids early on, with two teams positioned within striking distance of yet another bid! UCLA and Stanford have done as expected, but Cal and UC-Davis clock in at #13 and #17, respectively, a major coup for the region and a return to form for the once-mighty Southwest. Centex looms large for the second tier teams.

A region to watch could be the Atlantic Coast. While they sit with only a single bid at this point, they have three other top 30 D-I teams and a few just beyond that. Maryland, North Carolina, and UNC-Wilmington don’t have a ton of other opportunities to impress and will need to make use of what chances they do have.

There are also a couple of potential big movers and shakers to keep an eye on. Dartmouth’s weak QCTU has them in a hole, but they could make up a lot of ground with a strong Northwest Challenge. Kansas has also had a slow start, but could make waves if they win Centex again. QCTU also hurt Carleton, but the legacy program has Stanford and Northwest Challenge on the docket and chances to earn back a lot of the points they’ve ceded.