July 29, 2016 by Charlie Eisenhood and Cody Mills in Analysis with 0 comments
Ultiworld’s Cody Mills has put together a statistical tool to approximate the USA Ultimate rankings by using publicly available score data and applying the algorithm that USA Ultimate uses to run their numbers. While the results below are unofficial and could include some scores which are liable to be altered or removed from the official rankings, they are a good representation of the what the current rankings would look like.
Throughout the remainder of the club season, we will be running this USAU ranking approximation and, later, possibly applying different algorithms and/or ranking methods to test alternatives to the existing algorithm.
For more information about the USA Ultimate algorithm, ranking system, and some of its perceived flaws, see this FAQ from last year.
Men’s Division
The rankings below include only teams with at least five sanctioned games.
| RANK | TEAM | RATING |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Machine | 2512.75 |
| #2 | Sockeye | 2492.57 |
| #3 | Ironside | 2490.26 |
| #4 | Revolver | 2371.78 |
| #5 | GOAT | 2310.20 |
| #6 | Florida United | 2290.84 |
| #7 | Patrol | 2171.72 |
| #8 | Chain Lightning | 2154.85 |
| #9 | Madison Club | 2152.79 |
| #10 | PoNY | 2065.96 |
| #11 | Johnny Bravo | 2049.00 |
| #12 | Sub Zero | 2020.39 |
| #13 | Floodwall | 2013.00 |
| #14 | High Five | 1921.50 |
| #15 | Guerrilla | 1913.25 |
| #16 | Freaks | 1872.91 |
| #17 | Turbine | 1855.15 |
| #18 | Rhino | 1849.88 |
| #19 | Condors | 1802.61 |
| #20 | Inception | 1796.94 |
| #21 | Smokestack | 1765.96 |
| #22 | Ironmen | 1748.92 |
| #23 | Garden State Ultimate | 1705.14 |
| #24 | Medicine Men | 1653.77 |
| #25 | Mad Men | 1653.15 |
Implied Bid Allocation
Great Lakes: 2 bids
Mid-Atlantic: 2 bids
Northeast: 3 bids
Northwest: 1 bid
North Central: 2 bids
South Central: 1 bid
Southeast: 3 bids
Southwest: 2 bids
Discussion
With few games on the books at this point in the season, there isn’t a ton to draw from these early rankings, but there are some early stories to keep an eye on. A slow start for Rhino has the Northwest sitting with just one bid, and strong performances from Southeast teams have them sitting with three bids (Freaks is at the cutoff at #16, but these rankings do not yet include Ring of Fire!). It’s too early to make much of a single South Central bid, and even though Floodwall will drop out, Truck Stop will certainly claim a 2nd bid for the Mid-Atlantic.
Mixed Division
The rankings below include only teams with at least five sanctioned games.
| RANK | TEAM | RATING |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Steamboat | 2079.91 |
| #2 | Slow White | 2027.97 |
| #3 | AMP | 1965.49 |
| #4 | The Chad Larson Experience | 1962.12 |
| #5 | Seattle Mixtape | 1941.55 |
| #6 | Bang! | 1912.80 |
| #7 | Alloy | 1901.12 |
| #8 | Drag'n Thrust | 1873.64 |
| #9 | BFG | 1852.96 |
| #10 | Metro North | 1807.28 |
| #11 | Blackbird | 1806.82 |
| #12 | NOISE | 1771.30 |
| #13 | Bucket | 1709.96 |
| #14 | Wild Card | 1688.61 |
| #15 | Mischief | 1682.15 |
| #16 | UPA | 1644.62 |
| #17 | Charlotte Storm | 1644.30 |
| #18 | shame. | 1638.19 |
| #19 | Cosa Nostra | 1626.64 |
| #20 | Pegasus | 1624.93 |
| #21 | 7 Express | 1621.34 |
| #22 | Dub Club | 1586.16 |
| #23 | Love Tractor | 1577.20 |
| #24 | Polar Bears | 1565.94 |
| #25 | Birdfruit | 1547.81 |
Implied Bid Allocation
Great Lakes: 1 bid
Mid-Atlantic: 3 bids
Northeast: 3 bids
Northwest: 2 bids
North Central: 3 bids
South Central: 1 bid
Southeast: 1 bid
Southwest: 2 bids
Discussion
The same caveats in the Men’s Division apply here: these are early rankings and should change quite a bit. The Mid-Atlantic has to be thrilled, though, with three teams in the top 10. On the other hand, the Southwest has to be sweating with just two bids in hand at the moment. Revolution, a big Southwest tournament, sent a lot of points up to the Northwest for BFG as SW teams cannabalized each other1 with mixed results. Mischief is the second bid earner for the Southwest, and they are on the bubble at #15.
Women’s Division
The rankings below include only teams with at least five sanctioned games.
| RANK | TEAM | RATING |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Brute Squad | 2392.15 |
| #2 | Seattle Riot | 2243.59 |
| #3 | Molly Brown | 2177.06 |
| #4 | 6ixers | 2110.21 |
| #5 | Scandal | 2107.57 |
| #6 | Fury | 2080.89 |
| #7 | Nightlock | 1989.48 |
| #8 | Wildfire | 1924.51 |
| #9 | Phoenix | 1868.81 |
| #10 | Underground | 1806.51 |
| #11 | Schwa | 1781.13 |
| #12 | Heist | 1773.70 |
| #13 | BENT | 1727.32 |
| #14 | Ozone | 1696.32 |
| #15 | Green Means Go | 1676.25 |
| #16 | Rival | 1668.28 |
| #17 | Siege | 1643.94 |
| #18 | Huck the Patriarchy | 1639.20 |
| #19 | Nemesis | 1631.33 |
| #20 | Showdown | 1622.57 |
| #21 | Fusion | 1511.86 |
| #22 | Stella | 1464.83 |
| #23 | Hot Metal | 1453.49 |
| #24 | Zephyr | 1385.76 |
| #25 | Viva | 1380.27 |
Implied Bid Allocation
Great Lakes: 1 bid
Mid-Atlantic: 2 bids
Northeast: 3 bids
Northwest: 3 bids
North Central: 1 bid
South Central: 1 bid
Southeast: 2 bids
Southwest: 3 bids
Discussion
As it stands, New York Bent is the big winner coming out of the Elite-Select Challenge, as they float above other bid hunters like Green Means Go, Rival, and Siege. With Vancouver Traffic still to join the rankings (and they will almost certainly be a top 10 team by the end of the season), GMG’s bubble bid for the Mid-Atlantic could disappear.
Classic. ↩
