We reveal our winners, how Charlie did, and which picks were most popular.
October 28, 2021 by Ultiworld in Fantasy with 0 comments
Charlie Eisenhood takes on all comers, and there were no shortage of eager challengers. Hundreds entered to test their picking mettle against the head honcho of Ultiworld in the Beat Charlie Challenge.
This year’s Club Championships were, as expected, filled with seed-crushing results. Without a lot of chalk, predictive abilities were really pressed. Let’s look at the landscape of the contest, crown our winners, and see how Charlie did.
Here’s scoring, for a reminder:
- Pick the following for each of the mixed, women’s, and men’s divisions
- Quarterfinalists (1 pt. per correct answer)
- Semifinalists (1 pt.)
- Finalists (1 pt.)
- Champion (3 pts.)
Let’s start by looking at the cut line set by Charlie’s selections. He totaled 31 points, so 98 out of the 349 entries outscored him. Not bad, but the 72nd percentile is a step down from 91st percentile in the last Challenge performance.
- Quarterfinals: No. 1 Shame, No. 2 BFG, No. 3 Mixtape, No. 4 Drag’N Thrust, No. 5 AMP, No. 6 Space Heater, No. 7 Lawless, No. 9 Hybrid
- Semifinals: No. 1 Shame, No. 2 BFG, No. 3 Mixtape, No. 6 Space Heater
- Finals: No. 3 Mixtape, No. 6 Space Heater
- Champion: No. 6 Space Heater
- Scored: 8
An inauspicious start, to say the least. While Charlie did correctly pick six out of eight quarterfinalists, his champion, Space Heater, was sent packing before the round, somewhat dooming the rest of his bracket. That left him with just two of four semifinalists and no points after semis.
- Quarterfinals: No. 1 Fury, No. 2 Molly Brown, No. 3 Brute Squad, No. 4 Phoenix, No. 5 Traffic, No. 7 Schwa, No. 11 Nightlock, No. 16 Parcha
- Semifinals: No. 1 Fury, No. 2 Molly Brown, No. 3 Brute Squad, No. 4 Phoenix
- Finals: No. 1 Fury, No. 3 Brute Squad
- Champion: No. 1 Fury
- Scored: 14
The Bossman had a much stronger showing in the women’s division, where the top seeds performed well. But he did poorly in quarters, scoring on all of the top five seeds, but missing on his three reaches, none of whom made it. He nailed every other pick in the bracket.
- Quarterfinals: No. 1 Sockeye, No. 2 Machine, No. 3 Ring of Fire, No. 5 Chain Lightning, No. 7 Truck Stop, No. 8 Rhino, No. 9 PoNY, No. 11 Condors
- Semifinals: No. 1 Sockeye, No. 2 Machine, No. 3 Ring of Fire, No. 5 Chain Lightning
- Finals: No. 1 Sockeye, No. 2 Machine
- Champion: No. 1 Sockeye
- Scored: 9
The men’s division hosted Charlie’s best quarterfinals showing, an impressive seven out of eight, missing on #10 Johnny Bravo taking Condors’ spot. Semifinals and beyond, however, did not go as well, as Sockeye and Machine were both ousted early.
Charlie’s scores are important, but the field’s are as well. While Charlie scored well in the women’s division, the field generally performed their best there, too. His 14 points exceed the 12.4 average points in that division. Worth noting, 84.8% of entries called for no. 6 Seattle Riot to reach the quarterfinals, a trend Charlie bucked, to his detriment in the division, even though he still performed his best here. He was just barely above average in mixed (8 to 7.2) and slightly below in men’s (9 to 10).
In mixed, there were three clear favorites: No. 3 Mixtape (30.1% champion), No. 6 Space Heater (25.2%), and No. 1 Shame (21.2%). Eventual champion, No. 2 BFG, clocked in a distant fourth (9.2%). Six of the top ten finishers overall had BFG as their mixed division champ. Only four entries correctly predicted that Shame would not make quarters.
It was, of course, worth a few extra points to have correctly identified the two most successful low seeds at the tournament: No. 9 Hybrid and No. 12 NOISE. Just five entries picked NOISE to reach the semifinals and only four picked Hybrid to reach the final. No entries had both making it as far as they did.
If you thought the mixed division had favorites, look at these women’s title picks: Fury (51.9% champion), Brute Squad (27.2%), Molly Brown (19.2%). Nobody else had even 1% of the field backing them. The history of the division’s top-heavy dominance looms large! That did leave a coveted fourth spot in the semifinal round, and the order of the rate of selection for that spot perfectly followed the seeding: Phoenix (39% semifinal), Traffic (37%), Riot (20.1%), Schwa (11.7%). Despite being the last seed, Parcha was penciled in by seven entrants!
The surprises — at least in the win-loss column — in the women’s division were contained to quarterfinals. No. 13 Pop (3.2% quarterfinalist) and No. 15 Tabby Rosa (1.1%) did not have much backing, and nobody picked both.
There’s three teams you’re probably wondering about: No. 1 Sockeye, No. 2 Machine, and No. 9 PoNY. Sockeye was selected by 89.4% of entries to reach the final and by 53% to win the title. Machine was 90.3% to reach semifinals, 36.4% to reach the final, and 13.2% to take home the gold. And PoNY? 28.9% for semis, just 4.9% for the final, and 1.4% for a championship. They were actually outpaced by No. 5 Chain Lightning (35.5%) as a semifinal pick. Sockeye and Machine accounted for quite a hefty chunk of unrealized points.
No. 3 Ring of Fire’s real life championship was predicted by 30.4% of entrants, the second highest rate and they were clear favorites against Machine in a hypothetical semifinal. Nine entrants correctly picked a Ring of Fire vs. PoNY final, with six of those picking Raleigh was the victor.
We randomly drew from our pool of folks who outscored Charlie for each prize, although nobody could win multiple prizes. I’ve listed the champions from each winning entry to help identify them.
Greatest Bag: Christian (Champs: Mixtape, Fury, Ring of Fire)
Ultiworld Prize Pack: Kal B. (Champs: Mixtape, Fury, Ring of Fire)
Free Month Full Sub: Ben U. (Champs: Space Heater, Fury, Sockeye)
Congratulations to our winners, who all should be sure to remind Charlie they outpicked him, and a special shout out to Tina B., our top scorer, one of the few people to get all three champions correct.
See you all for the College Championships!