Could Win-Shares help find us the best MVP candidate?
August 1, 2024 by Paul Würtztack in Analysis with 0 comments
With the postseason having arrived, we’ll dive into the top performers for the season’s most consequential contests. But before we get to this past weekend’s top EDGE performers, let’s revisit last week’s issue of constructing a stats-based case for MVP.
In a sport with as short of a regular season as semi-pro ultimate, the subjective element of “valuable” in an MVP selection seems even more closely associated with the notion of winning, and that either explicitly or implicitly, the MVP should be on a team that at least makes the playoffs.
My past approach to identifying a stats-only MVP has been to combine production (EDGE) and productivity (E100) in order to account for the inadequacy of either by itself. Leaders in E100 almost always belong to winning teams, simply because its “goal equivalents-per-possession” calculation mirrors the essential formula for team wins: goals per possession. But EDGE is the opposite; it actually bends towards players on losing teams, or more specifically, on teams with less effective D-lines. The reason is obvious: running strict-ish lines, losing-team O-line players will simply play more, and counting stats favor those with more opportunities.
Better Box Score Metrics: A Win-Shares Approach to MVP; Playoffs Round 1 EDGE Results [UFA Playoff Round 1, 2024] is only available to Ultiworld Subscribers
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