The difference-making factors for the final four contenders
October 26, 2024 by Josh Katz in Preview with 0 comments
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After two days of play at Surf Cup Sports Park, just four teams remain in contention for the Mixed Division title as the tournament shifts to nearby Canyon Crest Academy. #1 Seattle BFG and #12 Lexington Sprocket will do battle in the first semifinal, before #5 Minneapolis Drag’n Thrust and #7 Ann Arbor Hybrid round out the action. Before the games get started, let’s briefly outline why each team will win this year’s Club Championship, and why they won’t.
Seattle BFG
Why they will: BFG possess an enviable number of elite players. We highlighted Connor Belfield, Sadie Jezierski, and Cheryl Hsu before the tournament, with all three making the top ten of our top 25 player rankings. And yet, none of them have been BFG’s best player this weekend. Lukas Ambrose has continued his rise to superstardom at Nationals, posting an absurd 8G/4A/9D/1T statline and demonstrating a level of field awareness reserved for the true greats in the sport. There isn’t another team left in the division with the quantity of high end talent to match up with BFG’s star quartet.
Why they won’t: Because it’s the Mixed Division, and as longtime followers know mixed ultimate is generally the most chaotic of the three divisions at Nationals and the top seed rarely wins the title. In fact, it’s happened just once in the previous four Nationals (last year, with Fort Collins shame.) and the only time in the last 20 years the top seed won the title in back-to-back years was in 2017 and 2018, when Seattle Mixtape and then Philadelphia Amp won their first titles1. While BFG have been the favorites all year, history is not on their side.
Minneapolis Drag’n Thrust
Why they will: Everyone is peaking at the right time. It’s hard to find fault with any of Drag’n’s individual players this week. Sure, they haven’t played perfect ultimate throughout the tournament, but no one does at Nationals. Take a look up and down the roster, though, and try to find a single player that isn’t operating close to their peak powers right now. Everyone on the roster has recorded a goal or an assist at some point this weekend. They’ve got an extremely diverse set of personnel on the roster, allowing them to counter just about any matchup thrown at them.
Why they won’t: Can they finish games cleanly? Six weeks ago, in the Pro Champs final, Drag’n took a 14-10 lead against shame. and seemed poised to secure a second tournament victory of the season after winning the Elite-Select Challenge. But they allowed shame. to score five straight goals and pull off a shocking comeback. Then, on Friday in quarters, we nearly had a repeat performance, as Drag’n allowed shame. to turn another 14-10 deficit into a 14-14 tie. This time, Drag’n staved off the comeback with a thrilling universe point victory, but it required three possessions on that point alone. It’s hard to think that Drag’n will be so lucky again, so they need to find an easier way to finish off their opponents.
Ann Arbor Hybrid
Why they will: Theo Shapinsky and Aaron Bartlett have near-perfect chemistry. The pair have played together with Michigan MagnUM in D-I Men’s Division for the last four years, developing a telepathic connection with one another. That connection has transitioned perfectly to club ultimate, with Hybrid’s coaching staff making the smart decision to give the pair the keys to the offense. Hybrid’s offense has been humming all weekend, giving Ann Arbor the consistent floor they’ve desperately needed the last couple years.
Why they won’t: Hybrid lack impact talent among their woman-matching players. Rachel Mast is a great player, and a recent Team USA selection, and Lauren Gerencser has become a red zone assassin this weekend. After that pair, however, are a lot of names that haven’t really had the chance to shine this weekend, and Hybrid have largely struggled to look the way of their WMPs. To win a title, they’ll have to find ways to contain Sarah Meckstroth, Erica Baken, and Emma Piorier in semis, and potentially Jezierski, Hsu, and Sam Rodenberg in the final. Hybrid haven’t shown that capability yet.
Lexington Sprocket
Why they will: Tannor Johnson-Go is operating at the peak of his powers right now. If Sprocket win the championship, his Nationals performance will go down as one of the greatest individual performances of all time. He’s been unstoppable this weekend in every facet of the game. Pinpoint hucks, perfectly timed cuts, impeccable defense, all of it, to perfection. He’s elevated his game and elevated his teammates in the process, taking Sprocket higher than just about anyone expected heading into the tournament. If they’re going to continue their wild ride, he’ll have to maintain this level of play for two more games.
Why they won’t: Sprocket have put in arguably their three best performances of the whole season in their last three games, but before that, their results have not been those of a championship caliber team. They started their Nationals run by losing to #14 Nashville ‘Shine on universe. They finished third in their own region. They lost to #19 Durham Toro at PEC-East! It’s far more likely that their previous 30 games are more indicative of who they are than the most recent three, and that team is not a worthy title winner. Can they win it all? Sure, anything is possible. Will they? That’s much harder to envision.
before that it was Shazaam and Brass Monkey in 2004 and 2005 ↩
