On the tenth day of Christmas Ultiworld gave to me...Nationals bid predictions!
December 21, 2024 by Theresa Diffendal, Edward Stephens, Josh Katz and Calvin Ciorba in Preview with 0 comments
Ultiworld’s coverage of the 2025 college season is presented by Spin Ultimate; all opinions are those of the author(s). Find out how Spin can get you, and your team, looking your best this season.
It’s time to unwrap some presents as we introduce the 12 Days of College Ultimate. For the next 12 days, we will be releasing one gift per day, though don’t count on getting any holiday fowl: it’s all college ultimate. From highlight videos to player chatter to a season predictions, we’ve got a little something for everyone.
On the tenth day of the 12 Days of College Ultimate, we’re breaking down bid predictions for every division! Who are the lucky teams going to the big show?
Division I
Here’s a quick bid primer for anyone unfamiliar with the system:
- There are 20 bids to Nationals in each of the D-I divisions.
- Each of the 10 regions gets one autobid no matter how well or poorly its teams perform during the regular season.
- The remaining 10 bids are distributed to the regions with the highest ranked teams according the USAU algorithm1 after the top-ranked team from each region (read: the autobid) is removed from consideration.
- There is no limit to the number of strength bids that can be awarded to any particular region. In theory, nine regions could end up with only one bid and one region could end up with 11 bids.
Note: For the purposes of this exercise, we will assume that if2 BYU CHI earn a bid for the Northwest in either division, they will forfeit it. This is by no means a safe assumption.
Men’s Division
Single Bid Locks: This season, there’s only one absolute lock for one-bid territory: the Metro East. With apologies to the reputation of Ottawa Gee Gees and Cornell Buds, neither of them will come close to cracking the division’s top-20. They’ll likely duke it out again for the lone ticket to Nationals.
Strength Bid Locks: Again, there are very few locks in the conversation relative to previous years. You can put both Massachusetts Zoodisc and Vermont Chill in the bank for New England, and both Pittsburgh En Sabah Nur and Penn State Spank will earn bids in the Ohio Valley. On the other side of the country, bet the farm on Oregon Ego and Oregon State Beavers for the Northwest. Oh, and before I forget, we flew right over the middle of the country, where both Minnesota and Carleton CUT are sure to land among the fortunate.
The Remaining Strength Bids: Ten autobids, four locks (NE, OV, NC, NW)… carry the three… we’ve got six more strength bids to divvy up. The strongest non-locks – especially given their generally strong regions – can get the first namechecks: title-contending Cal Poly SLO SLOcore + UC Santa Cruz Slugs (in a bounceback campaign) and title-contending Colorado Mamabird + Texas TUFF (impossible to unseat) earn for the Southwest and South Central, respectively. And you know what? Heap an extra log onto the South Central’s fire, because Washington University Contra, bringing back a huge chunk of last year’s Nationals roster, are going back-to-back, at least when it comes to helping the region.
Three more presents to hand out. Dexter Clyburn hasn’t missed a Nationals yet in his college career, and he isn’t about to start now. Tally one more for Cal Ursa Major in the Southwest to bring the region’s total up to three. With apologies to strong contenders in three other regions, both of the remaining spots will belong to the Northwest – and it still won’t feel like quite enough in a packed region. That will leave one bid in three additional regions. The non-earners’ chances range from impossible (everyone behind UNC Darkside in the Atlantic Coast) to ambitious (Brown Brownian Motion and Northeastern Huskies in New England) to a straight dogfight (Georgia Jojah and Georgia Tech Tribe in the Southeast).
Predicted Bid Distribution:
- AC – 1 (UNC)
- GL – 1 (Michigan)
- ME – 1 (Ottawa)
- NE – 2 (UMass, Vermont)
- NC – 2 (Carleton, Minnesota)
- NW – 4 (Oregon, Oregon State, Victoria, Utah)
- OV – 2 (Pittsburgh, Penn State)
- SC – 3 (Colorado, Texas, WashU)
- SE – 1 (Georgia)
- SW – 3 (Cal Poly SLO, UC Santa Cruz, Cal)
Women’s Division
Single Bid Locks: The list of regions guaranteed to only get a single shuttle to Nationals will look familiar to most observers of the division. You’ll find that only four-time defending champions UNC Pleiades do enough in the Atlantic Coast, with apologies to what will be a good American Dirty Ladies side. Likewise, either Georgia Athena or Georgia Tech Wreck will lead the Southeast, but they won’t both end up top-20. Penn Venus have the Ohio Valley on lock. And the autobid in the North Central might as well be renamed ‘Syzygy,’ because Carleton own it. Wisconsin Bella Donna are on the way up, but this isn’t the year.
Strength Bid Locks: Likewise, there are locks the other way, too: strength bids that are all but sewn up before the season even starts. Oregon Fugue, UBC Thunderbirds, and Washington Element should all cruise into bid range for the Northwest. Vermont Ruckus and Tufts Ewo are unflappable at the top of New England. Stanford Superfly and UC San Diego Dragon Coalition (who have done some serious recruiting for 2025) will earn their tickets without much trouble in the Southwest.
The Remaining Strength Bids: That leaves the division with six bids to fight over. First, a disappointing note for a region that has grown accustomed to multi-bid harvests: the South Central, despite a strong Colorado State Hell’s Belles program and a resurgent Texas Melee, can only rely on Colorado Quandary this year. Now that we know where the bids won’t go, let’s take a look at where they will. (Out west, mostly.) Western Washington Chaos, who have done some serious recruiting of their own the past few seasons, will add a fourth bid to the Northwest’s collection. Unfortunately, Utah Spiral Jetty and Victoria Vikes won’t quite do enough to add more than that, and BYU CHI’s bid will get redistributed.
The big bid migration is going to benefit the Southwest, where UC Davis Rogue and Cal Poly SLO SLO Motion will be joining last season’s qualifiers UC Santa Cruz Sol and UC Santa Barbara Burning Skirts for the Nationals party, swelling the SW to a whopping six-bid monster. With virtually all the action heading west, there’s at least one piece of good news for the rest of the country: the last strength bid will go to Notre Dame Echo in the Great Lakes. Echo were one point in a Tally Classic game away from securing the strength bid last season. That lesson will prove invaluable in 2025 as they manage the math to make some magic.
Predicted Bid Distribution:
- AC – 1 (UNC)
- GL – 2 (Michigan, Notre Dame)
- ME – 1 (Cornell)
- NE – 2 (Vermont, Tufts)
- NC – 1 (Carleton)
- NW – 4 (Oregon, UBC, Washington, Western Washington)
- OV – 1 (Penn)
- SC – 1 (Colorado)
- SE – 1 (Georgia)
- SW – 6 (Stanford, UC San Diego, UC Santa Barbara, UC Santa Cruz, UC Davis, Cal Poly SLO)
Division III
Men’s Division
‘Tis the season for premature predictions folks. Grab some eggnog and buckle up as Calvin Ciorba and Josh Katz set a line for each D-III men’s region’s bid chances, accompanied by reasoning for the taking the over/under. A quick rundown of how bids differ in D-III versus D-I: with a smaller Nationals, only 16 bids are up for grabs, 10 automatic bids and six strength bids, as opposed to D-I’s 20. And to promote regional growth, no region is allowed more than four bids (three strength bids plus the auto bid). Sleigh bells in the air, bad takes everywhere.
Atlantic Coast – 2.5
Calvin’s take: Over
I know this is a homer take, but here’s my rational. Richmond has earned a bid every single year possible since 2016. Davidson only lost to Richmond in the game-to-go in the Regional finals in 2024 by one point, so they will keep that sour taste in their mouth all season. Elon looks the best they have since 2015, adding U20 star Brayden Morrison.
Josh’s take: Under
Three bids is a little rich for my blood, but one strength bid for the Atlantic Coast is definitely on the cards. Assuming Richmond are a lock for the autobid, one of Elon, Davidson, or Christopher Newport should be strong enough to get themselves a second chance at a Nationals berth.
Prediction: Under
Great Lakes – 1.5
Calvin’s take: Under
It’s quite unfortunate the Great Lakes, whose perennial autobid usually finished near last at Nationals, now has to deal with the superteam Davenport. No team has sniffed near a strength bid in years, and now they’ll have to lose to Davenport for the coming years until they go D-I.
Josh’s take: Over
I’ll play contrarian here for the sake of the article and say someone steps up behind Davenport, but I don’t have much conviction behind this take. The second highest ranked team in the Great Lakes last year (pre-Series) was Grace College, at 31st. The one thing the Great Lakes has going for them is depth; few regions in D-III are as large as this one, increasing their chances of a surprise team rising high enough in the rankings.
Prediction: Under
Metro East – 1.5
Calvin’s take: Under
Not to add onto the never-ending pile of hate thrown at the Metro East, but this region is just not that good. It’s one of the most fickle regions as everyone can beat anyone, but they can also lose to anyone, which throws away any chance at a bid. This does make the Metro East super exciting to follow, but it gets boring after the last team standing finishes in the bottom half of Nationals for the umpteenth year.
Josh’s take: Over
Again, I’ll play contrarian here, though this one I can get myself behind. The Metro East has always had some issues with connectivity, and if the region’s teams decide to not let their connectivity bubble burst, we could see some wonky rankings and a multi-bid Metro East for the first time since 20133.
Prediction: Under
North Central – 2.5
Calvin’s take: Under
I’m fully on board with the Macalester hype train this year, and I think CHOP will be just as good if not better. However, the last two years the reigning National Champions in D-III men’s have not made it back to the big show the year after. With the amount of talent St. Olaf is graduating, and their usual losses at Ugly Dome, the algorithm may not be in their favor this year.
Josh’s take: Over
St. Olaf lose a lot from their championship squad, but there’s still plenty of talent left behind. Carleton are still on the rise after returning to Nationals last spring. And Macalester, led by the Suelflows, will rise up the rankings. The North Central is the new “best region in D-III.”
Prediction: Over
New England – 2.5
Calvin’s take: Over
Middlebury has made Nationals every year since 2017, so don’t expect them to go anywhere soon. Even though Williams graduates their number one star Reed Kendall, they are too well-coached to not earn a bid. Bates graduates almost no one, and will only improve from last year’s surprise appearance. There will be no shakeup to the New England region this year.
Josh’s take: Under
Middlebury are still Middlebury, and will earn a bid with ease. But Williams will likely regress after losing POTY runner-up Danny Klein and COTY Will Savage, and who knows if Bates can sustain the Daniel Snider magic for another year? Between those two, one of them will lose their bid from last year, and no one else in the region will step up in their place.
Prediction: Under
Northwest – 1.5
Calvin’s take: Over
Lewis & Clark and Whitman have been some of the two best teams in D-III these last two years. Both squads are only going to get better, as they graduate close to no one and will have another year of experience under their belt. Bacchus and the Sweets aren’t going anywhere.
Josh’s take: Under
The Northwest was a near-constant one-bid region before the pandemic, but the (re)emergence of Whitman and Lewis & Clark have boosted the region to temporary two-bid status in the last two seasons. That run ends this year, with one of those teams having a poor enough regular season to lose a bid, before stealing it at Regionals.4
Prediction: Over
Ohio Valley – 1.5
Calvin’s take: Under
Sure Cedarville earned a bid last year, but were they a Nationals worthy team? They got destroyed at Regionals, and no other team was that close to earning a bid. Franciscan is easily going to take this region down in 2025, and there will be few challengers to Fatal.
Josh’s take: Over
There are three guarantees in life: death, taxes, and four or five Ohio Valley teams being Nationals caliber, but few being consistent enough to earn a bid. This year, two teams will find themselves holding bids when the carousel stops, but neither will defend it at an always-heated Regionals.
Prediction: Under
South Central – 1.5
Calvin’s take: Under
Maybe I’m a hater, but in my eyes Colorado Mines’ bid was fraudulently earned from a weird South Central bubble. With Mines and Colorado College traveling to DIII Grand Prix, there will be no bubble this year, and no second bid.
Josh’s take: Over
Similar to the Atlantic Coast, there’s one team here that feels like a lock (Oklahoma Christian) and a number of teams that could play their way into a second bid (Colorado School of Mines, Colorado College, Missouri S&T). Colorado College feels the likeliest to be that team, with the rest of the region chasing behind.
Prediction: Over
Southeast – 1.5
Calvin’s take: Under
As cool as it would be to see a two-bid Southeast, I don’t see it happening. Ave Maria earned a bid last year, but are graduating a lot of their top talent. Berry didn’t even earn a strength bid last year, and lose star Collin Hill. Union is just too shallow of a team right now to earn a bid, and will be forced to try and steal the one at Regionals.
Josh’s take: Over
Ave Maria was a worthy earner of the autobid last year, and then Berry stole it away on universe point in the regional final. This year, even without Collin Hill, Berry will do enough in the regular season to earn their own bid and stop the thievery.
Prediction: Under
Southwest – 1.5
Calvin’s take: Under
I’m sorry Josh for making you write the over, because even I don’t know how I could spin in my head the dream of a two bid Southwest. This is a region that has never sent two teams and is perennially finishing in the consolation pool of Nationals.
Josh’s take: Over
Look, it would be incredible content if the four team region secured two bids. Any logical thought says it won’t happen. But with both Claremont and Occidental planning to attend DIII Grand Prix, it’s theoretically possible that both play well enough there to earn a bid. Actually, the more I think about it, the more I love it. Please, Santa and the ultimate gods, gift us a two bid Southwest.
Prediction: Under
Women’s Division
No fancy preamble here, let’s get into the meat and potatoes of a more idealistic than realistic bid prediction.
Atlantic Coast: 1
While no AC team finished inside strength bid territory in 2024, Davidson’s short regular season painted an incomplete picture. People’s DUFF still came a hair’s breadth from claiming the autobid, taking Richmond to universe in the regional final after beating them the day before. Neither Davidson nor Richmond appear to graduate any players from their young squads, and with the Redhots gaining some quality Nationals experience, whether this region has one or two bids could come down to if Davidson plays ten games.
Great Lakes: 1
Though Davenport is likely to improve on their regular season ranking in 2025, it’s unlikely a second GL team makes a push for strength bid territory.
Metro East: 2
Yes indeed, two bids for the Metro East. Rochester finished just outside the strength bid cutoff but flashed their credentials, splitting games with Nationals-attendees Wellesley and taking Wesleyan to universe point in the regional final. Our staff is high on Wesleyan going into the season, and as a rising tide lifts all boats, the EZ Women will find their way into strength bid territory if they pull off another strong regular season.
North Central: 3
Our staff’s only unanimous semifinal pick in Carleton Eclipse are the lockiest of locks, and despite some graduations, St. Olaf retains more than enough talent to secure another strength bid5, and after Macalester’s breakout 2024 season, the Pursesnatchers no longer feel like a shock upset pick but a strength bid shoo-in.
Grinnell and Michigan Tech are the wild cards that could push the NC’s bid claim to four again. Grinnell’s Nationals experience is sure to pay dividends, while Michigan Tech’s tenacity in scraping together ten games paved the way to the region’s third strength bid in 2024. And no matter who earns the bids, with the freak weather the NC is known for, anything could happen at regionals.
New England: 2
It’s easy to forget Middlebury didn’t earn a bid in 2024 as Bates, Wellesley and Williams earned the ME’s three, with the latter two narrowly finishing the season on the inside track with the last two strength bids. With the continuous growth of a very young program and the addition of Ella Widmyer, the Pranksters will pull off some hijinks and flip the script in 2025, playing into bid territory while turnover troubles mean only one of last year’s trio does.
Northwest: 2
Yes, losing the POTY is a blow to any team. But Portland only graduated two players from their dominant title-winning 2024 squad, and they’ll be right back in contention for 2025. The second bid is a toss-up between a Whitman team that suffered heartbreak at regionals but still boasts plenty of players with high-level youth experience, and a Lewis & Clark squad coming off a Nationals trip that saw close losses to top teams6 and returning the majority of their biggest contributors with added club experience.
Ohio Valley: 1
Listen, I want Lehigh to earn a strength bid as much as anyone. We thought it could happen in 2024, and they finished right outside strength bid territory. But if years past are any indication, they’ll have to contend with the likes of the NE, NC, and NW’s best to crack into strength bid range, and that’s a tall task in a year that feels deeper than ever. If Lehigh plays well against out of region teams though, the chance is there.
South Central: 2
The South Central is a tough region that cuts its teeth on plenty of D-I competition. Colorado College represented the SC at Milwaukee after finishing the regular season ranked sixth, but Trinity Altitude found themselves first alternate for a strength bid in 2024, just one ranking point shy of the last strength bid recipient. With Rice lurking just behind and a Truman State team not too far removed from being the top-seeded team at Nationals, the region seems due for a second bid in 2025.
Southeast: 1
Even with some roster turnover – most notably the loss of their big three in Kathryn Haynes, Victoria Green, and Claire Ward – Union is the only SE team likely to sniff strength bid territory.
Southwest: 1
It’s anyone’s guess which of Occidental or Claremont will win the region’s storied best-of-three regionals, but it’s no guess that only one of them will represent the SW at Nationals.
