Looking at the teams in a position to bring their region a bid...and who could take it from them.
March 13, 2026 by Calvin Ciorba and Keith Raynor in Opinion
Ultiworld’s coverage of the 2026 college ultimate season is presented by Spin Ultimate; all opinions are those of the author(s). Find out how Spin can get you, and your team, looking your best this season.
Welcome back to Bidwatch: D-III edition, where we give you the latest in strength bid distribution predictions. First, a recap of how the bid process works:
- 16 teams in each D-III division go to Nationals.
- 10 spots at Nationals are reserved for the winners of each of the 10 regional tournaments. These are called autobids, and they cannot move from one region to another.
- The remaining six bids are called “strength bids” and are distributed to the highest-ranked teams (according to USAU’s algorithm) not to win their respective regional tournaments. Strength bids are fluid and can go to any region.
- Teams must play 10 sanctioned games in order to qualify to earn either an autobid or a strength bid for their region.
Thanks to multiple tournament cancellations due to weather this year, there was a large connectivity bubble, making rankings difficult up until this week. Finally, most bubbles have been popped, presenting a clearer picture of the bid situation. As the regular season clock counts down, the margins for error shrink. In both our hearts and in the decay function, the games started to matter more. The time to lay the groundwork for bids is now. Let’s take a region-by-region look at current bid-holders, teams that could feasibly work their way into the picture, and dark horses that could have some favorites begging for hotel refunds in May.
Men’s Division
In the men’s division, we’re left with a chaotic ranking landscape: teams ranked 4–14 (all currently in bid-earning range) are within 100 Elo points of each other. The first five teams out are only 100 Elo points away from bid earning range as well, making it so anything can happen these last couple weeks of the college season.
Atlantic Coast
Current Bid Projection: 1 – #2 Elon Big Fat Bomb
Potential Bid Earners: #12 Richmond Spidermonkeys, #13 UNC Asheville Mudpuppy
Darkhorse: Davidson DUFF
Currently, Elon sits atop the Atlantic Coast rankings, as well as #2 overall in Ultiworld’s Power Rankings. Big Fat Bomb are firmly in title contention after strong results against D-I teams at Easterns Qualifier, so don’t expect them to lose their bid anytime soon.
The bigger story is whether Richmond or UNC Asheville can earn a second bid for the region. In a one-bid region, defeating Elon would be a huge ask, so the next few tournaments for the Spidermonkeys and Mudpuppy are crucial to keeping their Nationals hopes alive. Both teams currently sit about 150–200 Elo points outside the final bid-earning spot and have played relatively few games so far. Richmond still has the Atlantic Coast Open ahead, and both squads will compete at D-III Easterns. Earning that second bid will be difficult, but it’s definitely possible with a strong tournament performance.
Great Lakes
Current Bid Projection: 1 – Hillsdale Chargers
Potential Bid Earners: Asbury
Darkhorse: N/A
With Davenport officially moving to D-I, it was already going to be a long shot for the Great Lakes to earn two bids this year. Asbury, last year’s second bid earner, has faded back into obscurity and now sits at 41st in the D-III rankings. The reigning Nationals qualifier, Hillsdale, isn’t faring much better at 32nd. At this point, it’s fair to say the Great Lakes region has returned to the bottom of the D-III pack.
Metro East
Current Bid Projection: 1 – #20 Rochester Piggies
Potential Bid Earners: #19 Wesleyan Nietzsch Factor
Darkhorse: N/A
The Metro East is difficult to evaluate right now, as both of last year’s bid earners – Wesleyan and Rochester – have played only three games this season after poor weather at River City Showdown. Still, it appears that both the Piggies and Nietzsch Factor have taken a step back from their strong performances last year. Rochester took a loss to a feisty UNC Asheville squad, while Wesleyan fell to a low-ranked Oberlin team. At this point, either team could still win the region, but it’s unlikely the Metro East will see two bids again. With so few games played and Easterns approaching, it’s hard to see either squad putting together the kind of huge tournament performance needed to secure a second bid.
New England
Current Bid Projection: 3 – #1 Middlebury Pranksters, #11 Bowdoin Clown, #14 Williams
Potential Bid Earners: #22 Brandeis TRON
Darkhorse: Colby Center for Disc Control
Three teams from New England currently sit in bid-earning range: Middlebury, Bowdoin, and Williams. To start, I won’t say much more about the Pranksters, who have looked phenomenal this year, and are likely more focused on winning Nationals than simply earning a bid. Despite the loss of All-American Cole Fairfield, Bowdoin looks just as strong – if not stronger – than last year with large point differentials at their first tournament. Clown will still need to defend their bid in better weather and at more competitive tournaments (their strength-of-schedule is the lowest of bid-earning teams), but there’s little reason to think they’ll fall out of bid range right now.
Williams is in a more precarious position, sitting roughly 30 Elo points above the cutoff. The good news is they’ve already played two tournaments, making a major drop less likely. At the same time, their competition so far has been relatively weak, and a poor performance at D-III Easterns could easily knock them out of bid range.
Looking from the outside, Brandeis appears a bit too far back to climb into the bid picture and will likely need to steal one at Regionals. And with the Daniel Snider era over in Lewiston, Bates no longer looks like a team to keep a close eye on.
While this one is hard to predict, my guess is that either Bowdoin or Williams will lose their strength bid at D-III Easterns, making Regionals a potential blood bath once again.
North Central
Current Bid Projection: 3 – #7 Carleton CHOP, #8 St. Olaf Berzerkers, #10 Macalester Flat Earth
Potential Bid Earners: N/A
Darkhorse: Michigan Tech DiscoTech, Minnesota Duluth Northern Lights
We have been predicting it for years, but FINALLY, it seems as if the North Central has a legitimate shot for three bids. As predicted, Carleton is easily earning the first bid, sitting in third place and 1624 Elo points. After a rocky first tournament where they lost to big to CHOP and Minnesota B, St. Olaf stormed back at Midwest Throwdown, winning the whole tournament. They now sit at fifth overall, but are part of the 1300-1400 Elo pack– meaning they can’t flub their final tournament at Huck Finn.
Macalester is finally having the season we expected them to in the Suelflow twins’ last year. Flat Earth are sitting at 12th right now, but only five Elo points ahead of the last bid earner. With their last tournament being Old Capitol Open– a notoriously windy tournament– it is critical Macalester does not play close against worse teams.
While it might not be Michigan Tech or Minnesota Duluth’s year to earn a bid, they will be certainly hoping Flat Earth clutch up in Iowa to have a chance to steal a bid at regionals. I do predict St. Olaf and Macalester will play well enough in the final weekend of the regular season to keep their bids, giving the North Central three for the first time this decade.
Northwest
Current Bid Projection: 2 – #3 Lewis & Clark Bacchus, #6 Whitman Sweets
Potential Bid Earners: #21 Portland UPRise
Darkhorse: Puget Sound Postmen
I’m kind of shocked to say it, but there’s a very real chance the Northwest ends up with only one bid this year. Whitman is currently clinging to the second-to-last strength bid and has clearly struggled to find its footing after the 2025 graduations of players like Kai Kirsch and Leo Dungan-Seaver. The Sweets have picked up solid wins against CHOP and Colorado College, but they also have some puzzling results, including a loss to Macalester and a universe-point win over a much less talented Occidental squad. Heading into Stanford Invite this weekend, Whitman needs to handle weaker opponents convincingly and pick up a signature win or two to make the 10,000 Club faithful feel more confident.
In the end, though, I do think Whitman will hold onto that second bid and remain a Nationals team in 2026.
Ohio Valley
Current Bid Projection: 1 – # Franciscan Fatal
Potential Bid Earners: Kenyon SERF
Darkhorse: N/A
All signs point to the Ohio Valley’s lone bid once again going to Franciscan in 2026. While that still seems likely, Kenyon may have a sneaky chance to earn the final strength bid. With two wins over D-I Duke (albeit a weaker Duke team than in previous years), SERF currently sit just 80 Elo points outside the last bid-earning spot. That said, a loss to RIT and a narrow win over West Virginia leave some cause for concern. With only D-III Easterns remaining, Kenyon will likely need a signature win while avoiding any bad losses.
If they can pull that off, the Ohio Valley could end up with this year’s surprise strength bid. However, I think with a crowded field this year, only one bid will be earned once again.
South Central
Current Bid Projection: 2 – #4 Oklahoma Christian Eagles, #17 Colorado Mines Entropy
Potential Bid Earners: #18 Colorado College Wasabi
Darkhorse: Air Force Afterburn, Truman State JujiTSU
Probably the most intriguing bidwatch region is no surprise once again the South Central. Oklahoma Christian has put the region in a position to earn another strength bid after strong performances at Florida Warm Up and Snow Melt.
Colorado Mines is currently holding onto the final strength bid by the skin of its teeth, three points above the last bid earner Whitman. Big wins over Claremont and Macalester have propped up Entropy’s season meshed with an odd loss to Colorado B dragging their ranking down. A slight problem for Entropy though– they have no more tournaments planned for the rest of the season. Mines will be refreshing the USAU page and Ultiworld’s projectrankings.com every 30 minutes on the last weekend.
Colorado College is the first team out, 23 Elo points behind Whitman for the last strength bid. Consistency is not Wasabi’s strong suit as they beat Lewis & Clark, but questionable losses to Colorado B and Puget Sound are weighing their Elo points down. With only Centex left on their schedule, Wasabi’s bid could either be secured or slip away based entirely on this weekend’s results.
Surprisingly, Air Force is also lurking nearby after a strong 15-6 win over Puget Sound. However, they’ve played only three games, and it’s hard to believe Afterburn have improved that dramatically in a single offseason after they came second-to-last at regionals last year. Expect them to come back down to earth after Centex.
Lastly, Truman State, who always seems to be knocking on the bid door, is not an unreasonable tournament away from entering the conversation. Sitting at 21st and about 200 Elo points back, JujiTSU could still find some magic at their final event.
There’s a real chance the South Central ends up with only one bid this year, but with how tight the rankings are, they could just as easily earn three. My prediction? The region keeps two bids, but it could realistically go to any of the four teams mentioned above.
Southeast
Current Bid Projection: 1 – #5 Ave Maria Gyrenes
Potential Bid Earners: N/A
Darkhorse: #16 Berry Bucks
Berry currently holds the second-longest Nationals streak in the division, but that run may be in jeopardy now that Ave Maria has moved back to D-III. Ave Maria sits all the way up at fourth in the rankings, while Berry is down at 21st and nearly 300 Elo points outside bid-earning range. With two tournaments already under their belt, earning a second bid would require nothing short of a miracle. As a result, the Southeast will almost certainly remain a one-bid region once again.
Southwest
Current Bid Projection: 1 – #15 Claremont Braineaters
Potential Bid Earners: #25 Santa Clara SCAB
Darkhorse: N/A
The Southwest has its first real chance at earning a second bid – perhaps in the entire history of D-III men’s ultimate.1 Claremont currently sits in bid-earning range, though only two Elo points above the cutoff, while the newly D-III Santa Clara is less than 100 Elo points away. SCAB have taken the approach of playing high-level D-I tournaments, which has led to some heavy losses. At Stanford Invite this weekend, Santa Clara will need to keep games close against some of these top teams if the region hopes to secure the unheard-of second Southwest bid.
With a fuller roster for this next tournament, my hot take is that SCAB will jump up, but the Braineaters will actually lose their bid at D-III Easterns, leaving the Southwest with only one bid once again.
Women’s Division
No college cohort has fewer games than the field in the D-III women’s division, which is relevant for a number of reasons. The first is that some teams either haven’t played or haven’t played enough to appear. The second is that connectivity is weaker. The third is that team ratings are more volatile — a larger portion of their end of season ranking is as of yet undetermined than, for example, in D-I Women’s, where many top teams have played over 60% of their games already.
All that to say, of all four divisions in college, this is the one where the bid picture is the most incomplete and with the widest range of outcomes left in play.
Atlantic Coast
Current Bid Projection: Richmond Redhots
Potential Bid Earners: Davidson People’s DUFF
Dark Horse: Wake Forest Ruckus, Catholic Nun Betta
The prospects for the Atlantic Coast are dim, with Richmond Redhots again reprising their role as the face of the region. They are currently ranked 11th despite a 1-4 record, as they faced rather robust competition at Cherry Blossom Classic, with all opponents in the top 60. They have a lot of room for motion, but could be just as likely to drop lower as more teams filter in than move up higher.
Davidson is the third team out of strength bid range, just 50 points back. With only one tournament played, Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1, there’s potential to move up the rankings. The issue, however, is Macalester and Mt. Holyoke sit directly above, also with games left to play, and Richmond is currently the last team in bid-earning range. Even if the Atlantic Coast manages to rise up past two 2025 Nationals attendees, it’s possible they cannibalize their own bid.
Wake Forest Ruckus and Catholic Nun Betta are both just outside of the top 20 and also have a handful of games under their belt. The region’s dim hopes are not pitch black. If they go to two different events and have tremendous performances at both, they could backdoor their way into a strength bid. Wake Forest, sitting with about 750 points, needs about 200 more to have a shot.
Great Lakes
Current Bid Projection: #4 Davenport Panthers
Potential Bid Earners: ???
Dark Horse: N/A
Not a single Great Lakes team has entered the rankings yet, as even the Davenport Panthers have only played one tournament. Call us haters, but this region might struggle getting enough clubs with 10 games to be a major factor in the bid picture.
Metro East
Current Bid Projection: #1 Wesleyan Vicious Circles, #8 Rochester EZ Women
Potential Bid Earners: Skidmore Thoroughbears
Dark Horse: N/A
While the region is the butt of the joke in many cases, they are a solid bet for multiple spots at Nationals in D-III women’s. Reigning champions Wesleyan Vicious Circles are 4-0, which is below the USA Ultimate five game cutoff to be displayed, so ME fans need not dismay when they see the projected count on USAU’s site; they’d be roughly third if included. Rochester EZs are not far behind, showing as eighth in our projected rankings. With both over 1300 points, they are in strong position to maintain their holds.
Is there a chance of another strength bid earner? Skidmore Thoroughbears are currently projected at 20th,2 and with over 1000 points and some intriguing results like a close loss to Williams and big wins over Ithaca and Colby, they are worth keeping an eye on.
All three of the Metro East teams mentioned here are in a large disconnected segment of the rankings that should link up this month, which could send some rankings shifts, though the volume of the teams in the bubble should insulate them from anything too seismic.
New England
Current Bid Projection: #2 Middlebury Pranksters, #14 Wellesley Whiptails, #17 Wiliams Nova
Potential Bid Earners: #11 Mount Holyoke Daisy Chain, Bates Cold Front
Dark Horse: Amherst Sparkle Motion, Bowdoin Chaos Theory
The always bid-hungry New England region is typically a strong bet to haul in strength bids and 2026 is no different. The early projects put Wellesley and Williams inside of the cutoff comfortably, at fifth and ninth respectively. Middlebury is essentially a lock at second with 10 games under their belt. Wellesley has 12 of their own, a healthy number to add stability to their strong rating.
Not far from the landing zone are Mount Holyoke and Bates, at 13th and 17th, each over 1000 rating. Daisy Chain has 10 games already, but Bates has only six. Amherst raised some eyebrows at March UMadness and could also be a player, and Bowdoin also has the potential to figure into the conversation. It is unlikely we’ll see a swell from all of these teams to push the NE to the upper limits of bid ownership like is happening out west in D-I, but they do have potential and backup if a team takes a tumble.
North Central
Current Bid Projection: #5 Carleton Eclipse, #7 St. Olaf Vortex
Potential Bid Earners: #9 Macalester Pursesnatchers
Dark Horse: Michigan Tech Superior Ma’s, Grinnell Grinneleanor Roosevelt, #15 Winona State Bad Monaz
The NC currently has three teams in projected rankings, and all three are bid-capable. Carleton, at 9-3 and a 1403 rating, is living up to their blue-blood reputation with a strong and secure showing thus far. St. Olaf is about 130 points south of Carleton with a 5-1 record. Meanwhile, Macalester is sitting in 14th with 4-2, and after a lot of preseason hype about the Claire Lee show, their fate is unclear at this juncture. Certainly, a good showing for them is not only possible, but perhaps the expectation.
And this is before we see what Michigan Tech, Grinnell, and Winona State could do, though all three of those teams will need to get their 10 games in over the next handful of weekends. While the latter two will only need one more tournament, the Superior Ma’s have yet to see the field.
Northwest
Current Bid Projection: #6 Whitman Sweets
Potential Bid Earners: #12 Lewis & Clark Artemis, #20 Portland UPRoar
Dark Horse: #22 Puget Sound
Despite the success of Northwest teams at recent Nationals, the region is off to a rough start that has them staring down a potential narrow channel to get to Rockford. The region’s autobid is currently hovering around the cutoff, with Whitman at 15th with 1071. It is possible that, even were another NW team to rise, the region still only ends up with one bid if Whitman drops a few spots.
The good news is that the region has four teams in the top 25, with Lewis & Clark, Portland, and Puget Sound all stacked on top of one another in slots 20-22. UPS trails the others by about 100 points, but their nine games is the fewest of the group; the other teams are already into double digits. You can’t rule out three good teams this close to the line, but the region has work to do if they want to have multiple representatives at the College Championships.
Ohio Valley
Current Bid Projection: #3 Haverford/Bryn Mawr Sneetches, #10 Kenyon Blu-Ray, Cedarville Queen Bee
Potential Bid Earners: #16 Oberlin Preying Manti
Dark Horse: Swarthmore Warmothers
Home to the top ranked and 3rd ranked teams, things are looking great in the Ohio Valley. Haverford/Bryn Mawr Sneetches went 4-1 at Cherry Blossom Classic, while Kenyon went 3-2, dropping a close game to HBM. The duo are part of a sizable 20-team bubble (that also includes Richmond and Catholic). Once this Connectivity Island attaches to the mainland, the picture could change.
Cedarville also has a current claim to a strength bid, going 5-1 at Commonwealth Cup Weekend 1. That puts them in yet another bubble, and a smaller one at that. They aren’t secure from the cutoff, especially with that volatility, but it is plausible they win at the margins.
South Central
Current Bid Projection: #13 Colorado College Zenith
Potential Bid Earners: N/A
Dark Horse: #18 Rice Torque, Truman State TSUnami
The South Central picture parallels that of the Northwest: their autobid is perched near the cutoff and their crew of potential strength bid claimers have a hill to climb. The difference is that both of those elements are bleaker for the SC. Colorado College is at 18th with a 1030 rating, while their compatriots Rice and Truman State need to deliver strong results to make the type of leap necessary to earn extra spots at Nationals.
Southeast
Current Bid Projection: #24 Union Jillz
Potential Bid Earners: N/A
Dark Horse: N/A
The Southeast may take the crown as the smallest region this year if the Southwest sees growth, and that makes it even harder to be a player on the bid market. Union has done their part, at 7th after their 5-1 opening performance at The Only Tenn I See, where they even got some out-of-region competition from Indiana to bolster the connectivity prospects. Berry still has a tournament to play to get to 10 games and Georgia College has yet to debut, allowing dreamers to dream, but betting on a multi-bid Southeast is a dangerous prospect.
Southwest
Current Bid Projection: #19 Santa Clara RAGE
Potential Bid Earners: N/A
Dark Horse: #23 Occidental WAC
In addition to double the teams — through the addition of Cal Poly Humboldt and Santa Clara after USA Ultimate expanded the D-III eligibility pool — they do have quite a few games. Santa Clara and Cal Poly Humboldt have already been to two events, while Occidental and Claremont have each attended three! That makes their ratings pretty stable as we approach the March midpoint, and their fate as a one-bid region is locked in. Santa Clara leads the region at 16th, and Occidental, Humboldt, and Claremont are well short and lacking mobility. Get ready for another dramatic postseason with a new character in the mix!
Editor’s note: it appears the Southwest has only had a second bid one time, in 2011 ↩
Davidson and Davenport are not shown in the filtered D-III rankings yet ↩
