Who's headed to semifinals at the Chesapeake Invite? Nearly every game tomorrow matters.
July 12, 2014 by Charlie Eisenhood and Simon Pollock in Analysis, News with 4 comments
BALTIMORE — After a tumultuous first day of action at the Chesapeake Invite in Leesburg, VA, a final round of pool play stands between the twelve men’s teams and the straight-to-semifinals championship bracket.
Because no team finished the day undefeated and just one team (Sub Zero) finished with no wins, there are an astonishing variety of bracket scenarios that could play out depending on the outcome of tomorrow’s rounds.
Here’s what you need to know.
Ring of Fire (3-1)**
Boost FC (1-3)*
** Clinched a semis spot
*Eliminated from contention
Tomorrow’s Matchups: PoNY v. Boost FC, Doublewide v. Madcow, Ring of Fire v. GOAT
The Scenarios: The most important team in tomorrow’s variety of scenarios is New York PoNY. If they win, the outcome is simple: PoNY first, Ring second. If they lose, well, then it gets complicated.
PoNY would still go through to the semis if Madcow were to lose to Doublewide, but a Madcow win knocks PoNY out. Ring is through to semis regardless of what happens, but would win the pool in any scenario in which PoNY lost and Madcow won. There is a three way tie scenario if PoNY and Ring both lose, but Madcow wins. All three teams would be 3-2 and all would have split wins against one another. But those games are already in the books and we know the result: Ring’s +2 point differential sends them on, and Madcow’s 0 point differential sneaks them past PoNY, who sits at -2.
Because Doublewide has already lost to both PoNY and Ring, they cannot advance, even with a win over Madcow.
Here’s a flowchart of all the possibilities, which are much easier visualized than written out! Green boxes indicate possible outcomes.
Truck Stop (3-1)
Chain Lightning (3-1)
Florida United (2-2)
High Five (1-3)*
Sub Zero (0-4)*
*Eliminated from contention
Tomorrow’s Matchups: Machine v. Truck Stop, Chain Lightning v. Florida United, High Five v. Sub Zero
Win-And-You’re-In: Truck Stop, Machine, Chain
The Scenarios: While Florida United could make it with a spectacular win over Chain tomorrow morning, we should begin by noting that their advancement is exceedingly unlikely. They would need a Truck Stop win AND an 11 point victory over Chain. Let’s just say that if they beat Chain by 11, they’ve surely earned it.
Really, though, this pool comes down to Truck, Machine, and Chain Lightning. A Truck win means they take the pool. But Chain would still need to win — or lose to Florida by fewer than four points — to advance in the two spot. If Florida United beats Chain by more than four points, but by fewer than 11, then Machine takes the second spot. An 11+ point win for Florida means they take the second spot.
If Machine wins (i.e. Truck loses), then Machine is through to semis. A Chain win in that scenario means Chain takes the pool. A Chain loss — and they’re out. Truck Stop would advance, since both Truck, Chain, and Florida would be 3-2 and Truck defeated Florida and Chain today.
Yikes. Here’s a visual. Green boxes indicate possible outcomes.