Here's Ultiworld's first crack at the seedings for the 2014 Club Championships in the Women's Division. Who should be where?
October 1, 2014 by in Analysis with 40 comments
Here are Ultiworld’s seeding predictions (and associated pools) for the Women’s Division at the 2014 USA Ultimate National Championships:
| Pool A | Pool B | Pool C | Pool D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Brute Squad (1) | Seattle Riot (2) | San Francisco Fury (3) | Washington DC Scandal (4) |
| Atlanta Ozone (8) | San Francisco Nightlock (7) | Vancouver Traffic (6) | Denver Molly Brown (5) |
| Toronto Capitals (12) | Portland Schwa (11) | Texas Showdown (10) | Chicago Nemesis (9) |
| Philadelphia Green Means Go (13) | Madison Heist (14) | Seattle Underground (15) | Florida Tabby Rosa (16) |
Here’s an explanation of why we expect each team to land in their predicted spot:
1. Boston Brute Squad: Pretty clear number one seed, #1 USAU and have the most recent H2H in impressive fashion over Seattle Riot in the ECC final
2. Seattle Riot: Clear cut number two seed, #2 USAU is 3-1 against Fury and 2-1 against Scandal, winning the US Open and making the final at ECC
3. San Francisco Fury: Their losses and records are very similar to Scandal’s, and they have the H2H in that matchup, overcoming the tiny 11 point differential in USAU rankings
4. Washington DC Scandal: #3 in the USAU rankings with wins over both Riot and Fury
5. Denver Molly Brown: #5 in the USAU rankings without a H2H against either Scandal or Traffic, wins over Nightlock, Nemesis, Ozone, and Showdown
6. Vancouver Traffic: Actually has a losing record, but is #6 in USAU rankings with wins over Fury and Scandal
7. San Francisco Nightlock: While they’re #8 in the algorithm, they have a H2H over Ozone, outweighing losses to Heist and Pop
8. Atlanta Ozone: Fall behind Nightlock on H2H, but stay in top 8 with #7 USAU ranking
9. Chicago Nemesis: Late season surge included wins over Riot, Traffic, and Showdown, making up for terrible early season losses
10. Texas Showdown: Like Fury and Scandal, #9 in USAU has recent H2H loss against Nemesis
11. Portland Schwa: #12 in USAU, but with H2H wins over both Capitals and Underground
12. Toronto Capitals: Are 2-0 against Green Means Go and are #13 USAU, just enough to make up for H2H loss to Heist
13. Philadelphia Green Means Go: H2H win against Heist is enough to make up the 8 ranking points Heist has on them
14. Madison Heist: Actually lost H2H with Underground, but wins over Capitals, Nightlock, and Nemesis (twice) count for something
15. Seattle Underground: Argument to seed them higher with win over Heist, but second lowest ranked team in the field
16. Tabby Rosa: Lone first timer and surprise team, and lowest ranked so a lock to come in at last seed
NOTES
– The top four is staightforward, but Molly Brown’s lack of connectivity makes them trickier to place. Their only loss is to Brute Squad, and saying they’ve earned the fifth seed is fair. When in doubt, go to the rankings.
– Nemesis’s regular season is rather insane (loss to Dish, win over Riot), but theory here is that late season victories will be held in very high regard, as shown by the algorithm.
– 11-15 is a big chunk of teams with a hefty amount of connectivity and parity. Capitals should be rewarded for beating BENT in the NE Regional game to go; the other teams in this grouping are a combined 0-5 vs. BENT. There’s definitely potential for USAU to value the various H2H’s in this group differently.
– Speaking of BENT, they fell victim to Capitals doing what Capitals does: underperforming in the regular season – moreso this year than even usual – and then showing up to Regionals ready to take names. They throw a wrench into all of the rankings placements and how to value wins/losses involving them.