What do you think of these seedings and pools?
September 16, 2015 by Charlie Eisenhood in Analysis with 10 comments
Here are Ultiworld’s seeding predictions (and associated pools) for the Men’s Division at the 2015 USA Ultimate National Championships:
|POOL A||POOL B||POOL C||POOL D|
|Revolver (1)||Doublewide (2)||High Five (3)||Johnny Bravo (4)|
|Rhino (8)||Ironside (7)||Truck Stop (6)||Machine (5)|
|Patrol (12)||Ring of Fire (11)||Florida United (10)||Sockeye (9)|
|Madison Club (13)||Sub Zero (14)||GOAT (15)||Prairie Fire (16)|
Here is the basic reasoning for the seedings presented above, based heavily on the latest USA Ultimate rankings that include postseason performance so far.
1. San Francisco Revolver – Clear #1, winner of the US Open, winner of the Pro Flight Finale, finished at the top of the USAU rankings.
2. Austin Doublewide – Five point win over Bravo at Regionals, #3 USAU, two head-to-head (H2H) wins over High Five
3. Michigan High Five – Dominant victory in Great Lakes over Machine, #4 USAU, 1-1 vs. Bravo
4. Denver Johnny Bravo – Defending National champs, #6 USAU, H2H over Machine, H2H over Truck Stop
5. Chicago Machine – H2H over Truck Stop, USAU #7
6. Washington DC Truck Stop – Clearly a top 6 seed, USAU #5, H2H over Ironside
7. Boston Ironside – USAU #9, H2H over Rhino
8. Portland Rhino – USAU #8, won Northwest title over Sockeye
9. Seattle Sockeye – USAU #2, punished for losing to Rhino
10. Florida United – USAU #11, won Southeast title over Ring
11. Raleigh Ring of Fire – USAU #10, bumped down for loss to Florida
12. Philadelphia Patrol – H2H win over Madison Club
13. Madison Club – USAU #12, North Central winner
14. Minneapolis Sub Zero – #14 USAU
15. Toronto GOAT – #16 USAU
16. Kansas City Prairie Fire – #19 USAU
– The biggest question mark heading into this year’s rankings is what USA Ultimate will do with the new rule that allows them to be flexible with Regional finish. Before 2014, teams that placed higher at Regionals were required to be seeded higher at Nationals. That is no longer the case. The rule reads: “The order of finish at Regionals will be strongly considered in determining seeding for Nationals, but will not be binding.”
What to make of that? For the Men’s Division, there is a particularly thorny spot: #2 Sockeye lost to #8 Rhino at Regionals. As you can see above, I have punished Sockeye in the seeding much like you would see in years past. Considering Sockeye’s relatively thin regular season results (just two tournaments), I think you have to put extra weight on Regionals. It seems hard to justify giving them a pool one seed after they lost the region. And if you want to give them a two seed, well, there’s Rhino sitting right there.
Until we see otherwise from USA Ultimate, we will largely stick to the old seeding style.
– The top of the seeding is a bit murky. Truck Stop has a claim, perhaps, for a higher seed, but those H2H losses to Machine and Bravo loom large.
– Beyond that, things are fairly straightforward. As always, we default to the USAU rankings and adjust from there with any strong H2H results. For what it’s worth, because of the strangeness of this season and the new rule about Regional finish, I am less confident in these seeds than I was a year ago — when I went 16/16.