Can we improve upon what completion percentage tells us about player efficiency and production?
May 2, 2023 by Paul in Analysis with 0 comments
On the inaugural week of BBSM’s 3rd AUDL season, I’m actually going to finish up some leftover business from last year. Part of it is just final data clean-up for 2022, and the official 2022 BBSM EDGE Stats and More1 are found at the bottom. The main part is what to do about the SRB Conundrum, and the answer of course is to create a new metric. Make that two. Or three.
The SRB Conundrum
In announcing his Championship Weekend Honor Role last August, Evan Lepler wrote this about Solomon Rueschemeyer-Bailey of the New York Empire: “A decade into AUDL action, SRB’s season stands alone in terms of high-volume, high-efficiency passing performances.”
Lepler was referring to the fact that SRB had 359 completions in 10 regular-season games and just three turnovers. I would have repeated “just three turnovers” for emphasis, except that one of those three was a Quarter-Ending Incompletion (QEInc),2 so he actually only had two real turnovers. To repeat: 361 passes, two turns. This remarkable stat raised three questions here at BBSM HQ, which I will take in order.
BBSM has typically relied on the real-time Advanced Stats pages for each game, but the subsequent official stats don’t always match up; for example, it appears that O-Line/D-Line Points Played counts are corrected in the official stats to account for time-out substitutions. The AUDL collected data in the final tables should now match what is on each player’s profile page, except for total turnovers, given that I subtract out quarter-ending incompletions. ↩
End of the second quarter in the June 10, 2022 game vs. DC. One of his only other two turnovers came in the first quarter of that game. ↩
Better Box Score Metrics: A New Take On Efficiency (Pt. 1) is only available to Ultiworld Subscribers
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