Here's what we expect to see!
May 7, 2024 by Charlie Eisenhood in Analysis with 0 comments
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After the excitement of Regionals, we now have the full field of Nationals teams. It’s time to start thinking about what the seeding and pools might look like for the College Championships.
The post-Regionals rankings — expected Wednesday but approximated by Frisbee-Rankings.com — will be heavily leaned upon, and the order of finish at Regionals “will be strongly considered in determining seeding for Nationals, but will not be binding.”
Please note that we do our best to follow USA Ultimate’s unstated guidelines for seeding: head-to-head wins matter at the margin and historic success is considered.
Let’s kick things off right away with the pools generated by my predicted seeding. All references to rankings are to those predicted by Frisbee-Rankings.com; game validation and other changes could alter the final rankings and consequently change the seeding.
Men’s Division
| POOL A | POOL B | POOL C | POOL D |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC (1) | Georgia (2) | UMass (3) | Pittsburgh (4) |
| Brown (8) | Oregon (7) | Cal Poly SLO (6) | Colorado (5) |
| Carleton (12) | Texas (11) | Minnesota (10) | Vermont (9) |
| Alabama-Huntsville (13) | NC State (14) | Cal (15) | Penn State (16) |
| Oregon State (17) | WashU (18) | Ottawa (19) | Michigan (20) |
1. UNC — While not the absolute lock #1 seed they have been in the past, UNC should still be #1 this season. They finished #2 in the USAU rankings and have a head-to-head win over top-ranked Colorado. Being the three-time defending national champions helps too. Notably, they never played Georgia.
2. Georgia — #3 in the rankings. A great finish to the season at Easterns will ensure Jojah a pool #1 seed. I think we will ultimately see them bumped ahead of Colorado, as their resume is clearly stronger. Colorado only leapfrogged UGA in the post-Regionals rankings because Georgia didn’t win by big enough margins against bad teams at Conferences, and Colorado picked up points with strong wins over WashU and Texas. USAU could absolutely just rely on the rankings here, but it also gets three South Central teams out of the same pool to bump Colorado down. More on Colorado’s precipitous drop from their #1 ranking below.
3. UMass — It’s tough to figure out what to do with UMass (and even more so Colorado). With POTY candidate Wyatt Kellman and a couple other key guys out for Regionals, I think seeding decision makers need to recognize that their resume is still extremely strong, despite the loss to Brown in the NE Regional final.
4. Pittsburgh — H2H win over Colorado. 0-2 v. UMass.
5. Colorado — #1 in the rankings, but a shockingly weak resume for such a highly ranked team. They have H2H losses against UNC, UMass, Pitt, Cal Poly SLO, and Oregon. Their best win is over Oregon! A combination of close losses to good teams and big wins over mid-tier teams has vaulted them up the rankings. Realistically, they could be seeded anywhere from #2 to #6. I expect most team feedback will push for them to drop to at least Pool D. I think it would be a failure of a fair seeding process to place them above UMass or Pitt, and there’s even a case they should drop behind SLO, against whom they are 0-1. But SLO also had a shaky close to the season and the rankings are still the #1 factor in seeding. I think they land here.
6. Cal Poly SLO — Although they dropped a game to Oregon, they are 3-1 in the matchup on the year. They could climb to #5 if USAU heavily weights the H2H results of Colorado. Being 100 points behind Colorado in the rankings has to matter, though.
7. Oregon — Clear #7 with rankings.
8. Brown — Not an easy decision here! Brown won the New England region but they are 0-2 vs. Vermont on the year. With UVM sitting one spot behind them in the rankings, you could definitely bump Vermont to this #8 seed. But it’s just weird to ignore Regionals results. Brown clearly outplayed Vermont at the most important tournament of the season so far.
9. Vermont — Next in the rankings
10. Minnesota — Behind Texas in the rankings but owns the H2H.
11. Texas — Rankings and H2H loss to Minnesota.
12. Carleton — Rankings
13. Alabama-Huntsville — What a season for UAH. No reason to deviate from rankings.
14. NC State — You guessed it, rankings!
15. California — Clear from the rankings, as are the rest of the teams below.
16. Penn State
17. Oregon State
18. WashU
19. Ottawa — Metro East qualifier won’t be the bottom seed!
20. Michigan
Women’s Division
| POOL A | POOL B | POOL C | POOL D |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vermont (1) | UBC (2) | Carleton (3) | Oregon (4) |
| Tufts (8) | Colorado (7) | Stanford (6) | UNC (5) |
| Victoria (12) | Michigan (11) | Washington (10) | UCSB (9) |
| UCSD (13) | WWU (14) | Penn (15) | UC Santa Cruz (16) |
| Colorado State (17) | Georgia (18) | Utah (19) | SUNY Binghamton (20) |
1. Vermont — #2 in the rankings, but the clear #1 seed with their H2H Stanford Invite win over UBC.
2. UBC — #1 in the rankings.
3. Carleton — Clear from the rankings and H2H results.
4. Oregon — H2H loss to Carleton
5. UNC — Making a rankings alteration here to avoid awkwardness. For one, Stanford’s resume is clearly worse than UNC’s. UNC took a big rankings hit at Conferences for only beating Duke 13-6 instead of getting the blowout. Nonsense. UNC is the three-time defending national champion and only has losses to Vermont and Carleton. Stanford lost to BYU, Oregon, Carleton, Washington, and Vermont this season. This also helps because it prevents having three Southwest teams in Pool D.
6. Stanford — Clear #5 or #6 seed
7. Colorado — Rankings
8. Tufts — Rankings, no H2H results of note
9. UC Santa Barbara — Rankings
10. Washington — Rankings, did not play UCSB this season
11. Michigan — No connectivity to nearby ranked teams.
12. Victoria — Rankings
13. UC San Diego — Rankings, H2H win over WWU.
14. Western Washington — Rankings from here on out
15. Pennsylvania
16. UC Santa Cruz
17. Colorado State
18. Georgia
19. Utah
20. SUNY Binghamton
