With just three weekends of competition before the series, we dive into where the eight strength bids for all three divisions stand going into ESC and what shakeups are on the horizon.
August 16, 2024 by Anna Browne and Scott Dunham in News with 0 comments
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Almost in the blink of an eye, the club regular season is winding down with a bang. Major TCT events including Pro-Elite Challenge East and West, Select Flight Invite East and West, and US Open are behind us. Just two major regular season events remain on the calendar, Pro Championships and the Elite-Select Challenge. With Pro Championships occurring the week before sectionals and serving as a warm-up tournament for the highest level of teams who get an auto bid to their respective regional championship, Elite-Select Challenge is the last true opportunity for massive shifts in the bid picture. In this article, we will be previewing each division’s strength bids and the potential for major shifts following ESC.1
Women’s Division
Dr. Anna’s Prognosis:
With 11 of the top 20 teams2 in the rankings present at ESC, including six of the eight total strength bid holders, every point of every game matters this weekend. From the top strength bid holder, Toronto 6ixers, to the bottom strength bid holder, Pittsburgh Parcha, is just a 260 point gap. The three main challengers looking for some upsets to earn another bid for their region are San Francisco Nightlock, Washington DC Grit, and Oakland LOL. All three of these teams are within 60 points of strength bid territory, with Nightlock and Grit fewer than 10 points from Parcha. With just a single tournament under the belt of most teams so far, uncertainty is high and a solid result at ESC for a strength bid hopeful could catapult them into bid territory.
Dr. Scott’s Second Opinion:
I think it is highly likely that the Women’s Division’s bids stay exactly the same as they are now. The teams now earning strength bids are all solid programs that have performed solidly versus strong competition, and the three teams on the bubble will all get a big boost after ESC by dropping blowouts currently costing them substantially in the algorithm. The only change I could foresee is Nightlock or LOL stepping up over both Parcha and Grit to shift a bid from MA to SW.
Current Bid Distribution
- Great Lakes: 1
- Mid-Atlantic: 2
- North Central: 1
- Northeast: 4
- Northwest: 4
- South Central: 1
- Southeast: 1
- Southwest: 2
Strength Bid Safety Ratings
Mid-Atlantic
- Parcha: Very Unsafe
With Parcha claiming a bid for the Mid-Atlantic by just six rankings points currently, this bid sits in the most precarious position. This is exacerbated with only six games played so far. That being said, Grit, another Mid-Atlantic strength bid hopeful, are right behind the closest challenger, Nightlock.
Scott’s Jots: Parcha will get to throw out a game costing them 60 points, so they effectively have a 65 point margin over Nightlock with four games in the books, with Grit the most likely team to benefit if they falter. Note that Grit will also drop a game that is costing them almost 60 points after ESC, so effectively a 55 point margin over Nightlock and four games that will count.
Northeast
- New York BENT: Mostly Safe
BENT sit at ninth in the rankings currently, with over a 300-point cushion between them and the final strength bid earners. While they still have another tournament left with Pro Champs, their 10 games played makes their position secure.
- 6ixers: Moderately Safe
Like BENT, 6ixers have a large cushion between them and the strength bid bubble of around 260 points, but the Toronto contingent only has one tournament under their belt, so uncertainty is higher.
- Quebec Iris: Slightly Safe
Although Iris are just one rank below 6ixers, their position is slightly more precarious due to their reliance on wins over Grit and Chicago Nemesis. Like 6ixers, they only have a single tournament on the season. Unlike 6ixers, their ESC pool is much stronger and an upset could send them into consolation.
Scott’s Jots: I disagree that Iris are in significantly more peril than 6ixers. The ranking difference is only 11 points, and 6ixers have only five games that will count in algorithm as opposed to six for Iris. I agree that Seattle Riot seem like a more formidable pool play opponent than Nightlock, but they also have a higher rating and otherwise the pools are comparable. The only real danger for either of these teams is if they come in short-handed or unfocused due to looking ahead to WUC.
Northwest
- Oregon Schwa: Moderately Safe
Yes, Schwa are below all three NE bid earners. They earn the Moderately Safe designation because they have three tournaments played so far, with wins against all of the bid bubble teams including Nightlock, Starling, and Minneapolis Pop. They also play the other two main challengers, Grit and LOL, in pool play.
- Utah Dark Sky: Moderately Unsafe
Coming out with a tournament win at SFI West propels Dark Sky into bid-earning territory. While their ranking will likely be helped once blowouts are dropped, at just six games played, Dark Sky are in a precarious position. Couple that with a strong Pool D including a Parcha squad playing for every point and a likely underrated Nemesis squad; Dark Sky will need to prove they deserve a bid from game one on Saturday.
Scott’s Jots: Dark Sky will get to drop two games currently costing them 150 points in the ranking, so they are effectively at a 1900 rating with just three games counting.
- Riot: Mostly Unsafe
Riot are struggling to meet preseason expectations. They will need a strong tournament to hang on to their bid, with just a 90 point buffer between them and the bubble, just six games played, and no wins against big challengers. The Iris vs Riot pool play matchup will indicate what position this bid is in.
Scott’s Jots: Riot are being killed for those two big losses to Vancouver Traffic. If they can avoid similar debacles at ESC they should be just fine next week. However, the bigger challenge is that they are also playing at Pro Champs (as are Parcha and Grit), where the tougher competition is likely to suppress their algorithm rating
Southwest
- SoCal Flipside: Very Safe
With wins over bid earners Raleigh Phoenix, BENT, and Schwa (twice) and a single point loss to Molly Brown, Flipside are very secure in their positioning. At 7-5 with no major TCT events left, they are gearing up for the Series without needing to worry about stealing a bid to Nationals.
Bid Bubble Challengers
The three biggest challengers to the strength bids will all be present at ESC. Nightlock come in just outside the bubble with a 4-7 record. If they can make it to the fifth-place bracket, Nightlock can easily find themselves with a strength bid in their hands. Grit and LOL are in similar positions, with both teams having successful results in their first tournament, Grit taking ninth at PEC E and LOL taking third at SFI W. Pitted up against each other in pool play, either team could position themselves in a bid push with a decisive win over the other and strong results in the fifth place bracket.
Scott’s Jots: Like Parcha and Grit, LOL will be able to drop a damaging blowout win after this weekend that is costing them 80 points in the algorithm. However, LOL remain unproven against the level of competition they can expect this weekend, getting punished by the one higher-ranked team they faced, Dark Sky.
Outside of the ESC trio, the biggest bid challengers are Northampton Starling, San Diego Wildfire, and Austin Vengeance. With no scheduled attendance at any more TCT events for these three, their positions in the bid picture are unlikely to change. Starling could benefit from a Mid-Atlantic rise at ESC, as their positioning is highly dependent on losses to Grit and Parcha. Wildfire are hoping their regional rivals Nightlock and LOL can gain strength bids for the region to aid their chances at a bid. With a 15-10 loss to LOL, Wildfire are unlikely to earn their own bid unless they can dominate at Ski Town Classic. Finally, Vengeance already have 14 games under their belt. While they had an undefeated SFI E and just a three-loss PEC E, Vengeance weren’t able to get large enough victories at Texas 2 Finger and SFI E to propel them into the bid picture.
Scott’s Jots: Doubling down on Anna’s analysis above: there is no way any of these teams can earn a bid. Starling and Vengeance are probably done for the season and, in any case, have too many games in the books to move up significantly even if they did play another tournament. Wildfire only have four games that will count in their final rating, but even if they shut out every team they play at Ski Town, the field is too weak to boost their rating enough to get them close to bid range.
Games with the Biggest Bid Implications at ESC
- Grit v. LOL, Pool B
- Iris v. Riot, Pool C
- Parcha v. Dark Sky, Pool D
Any combination of Dark Sky, Riot, Parcha, Nightlock, Grit, or LOL in the bracket or consolation, including the fifth place bracket.
Mixed Division
Dr. Anna’s Prognosis:
In contrast to the Women’s Division, the Mixed Division will have a limited number of current bid holders at ESC. Just five of the top 20 teams in the rankings will be present at ESC, representing five total bids and just two total strength bids; the margins in Mixed are razor thin. Additionally, with numerous regular Nationals attendees finding themselves outside the strength bid window — Boston Slow, Arizona Lawless, Madison NOISE, and Seattle Mixtape among the most notable names— this division truly has the most uncertainty leading into the weekend. Of the strength bids up for grabs, Sacramento Tower’s bid is the most precarious with just a 50 point cushion between them and the bubble. The biggest challengers present at ESC include the aforementioned stalwarts of Lawless, NOISE, and Mixtape, alongside the likes of the Ithaca Townies, Dallas Public Enemy, Charlotte Storm, and Nashville ‘Shine. Most squads have a tournament or two under their belts so far, breeding even more uncertainty in the division of chaos. Even though just two strength bid holders will be at ESC, strong results from bubble teams could lead to cascading effects outside of the tournament.
Dr. Scott’s Second Opinion:
Other tournaments outside of ESC will play a larger role for Mixed, including NW Fruit Bowl (Seattle BFG, Montana MOONDOG, Los Angeles Lotus, Bay Area Sunshine, and Oregon Scorch), Ski Town (Huntsville Space Force, Bay Area Donuts), and, of course, Pro Champs (Fort Collins shame., Ann Arbor Hybrid, New York XIST, Philadelphia AMP, Slow, Minneapolis Drag’n Thrust, ‘Shine, and Washington DC Rally).
Current Bid Distribution
- Great Lakes: 1
- Mid-Atlantic: 2
- North Central: 1
- Northeast: 3
- Northwest: 3
- South Central: 2
- Southeast: 2
- Southwest: 2
Strength Bid Safety Ratings
Mid-Atlantic
- Rally: Mostly Safe
With just six games on the season so far, Rally are sitting in a more comfortable spot than most with wins over bubble teams XIST and Slow and close losses to top squads Hybrid, AMP, and Austin Disco Club. Their positioning in pool B with two challengers, NOISE and Townies, makes their perch slightly wobbly compared to other squads.
Scott’s Jots: Rally are barely safe, as their story remains mostly unwritten. They are playing at both ESC and Pro Champs, so about 70% of their final rating will be based on games that they have yet to play.
Northeast
- Burlington Big Rig: Slightly Unsafe
While Big Rig have a minimal rankings buffer to the bubble, they benefit from a strong 18-1 showing across their first three tournaments. With a 15-8 win over Townies to counteract their earlier 9-7 loss, Big Rig are moderately comfortable due to the certainty of their positioning. They haven’t even seen a top-20 team, but have big victories against many Select Flight teams, securing their position slightly. While ESC is unlikely to steal their bid, strong results from current bid hopefuls at Pro Champs could see Big Rig lose their bid in the final hour.
Scott’s Jots: I would put Big Rig on the safe side of the ledger (safer than Rally for example), as they are likely done for the season and a lot of teams would have to shoot up in the rankings to push them out of bid range.
- XIST: Moderately Unsafe (for now)
Given everything on the table at ESC, XIST are likely to lose their bid by the end of the weekend. However, with a talented roster and a spot at Pro Champs, they will likely have the ability to regain a strength bid. Additionally, wins against other bubble teams Space Force and shame. will likely help their cause.
Scott’s Jots: If XIST come to Pro Champs at full strength, they will likely solidify their bid. They held their own at US Open despite being shorthanded.
Northwest
- Vancouver Red Flag: Very Safe
After a strong PEC West and SFI West, Red Flag come in as the second overall team in the rankings and the top strength bid holder. With wins against many Nationals-level squads and a single loss to top-ranked BFG, Red Flag may be the only mixed team watching the end of the regular season like it’s a reality TV show.
- MOODOG: Mostly Unsafe
With just a 40-point buffer to the bubble, MOONDOG are sweating buckets. While they have no TCT events left, they will be present at Northwest Fruit Bowl. Sadly for their bid status, a loss or close win to any team other than BFG would likely drop them out of the bid picture. Even if they can maintain their current positioning after this weekend, Pro Champs likely won’t be as kind. Unlike their regional rivals above, MOONDOG will be watching the final tournament like they are *in* the reality TV show.
Scott’s Jots: Northwest Fruit Bowl is actually an ideal tournament for a team on the bid bubble like MOONDOG. BFG are so highly rated that keeping it close is likely to boost their rating (and even a blowout loss would not be too painful). The rest of the teams at the tournament (with the exception of BW and RAMP, who MOONDOG are unlikely to face) are highly rated enough that strong wins can boost MOONDOG’s rating3. Remember, the algorithm has a bias which favors playing teams ranked 100-400 points lower (seeds 3-8).
South Central
- shame.: Slightly Safe
While our returning national champions currently sit in a precarious spot in the bid picture, a strong performance at Pro Champs would probably vault them into the top spot in their region. The biggest thing holding shame. down currently is a lack of results against strong teams. While US Open saw them beat both Mixtape and Lawless, losses to Mischief and XIST left question marks around their potential. Are we looking at yet another post-championship slump in Mixed?
Southeast
- Space Force: Very Unsafe
In true mixed fashion, Space Force currently hold their strength bid by less than half a point over Slow. While they had a good PEC East on paper, losing to only NOISE and XIST, the algorithm has not been kind to them. The biggest drop currently is from their 9-8 loss to Huntsville Pyro in the final of their home tournament, Huntsville Huckfest. Space Force’s main saving grace is their 13-9 win over Slow, but mediocre results outside of that could mean they lose out on a bid to a team they have a head-to-head win against. They do have slight control over their own destiny with an appearance at Ski Town Classic, but will need to have decisive wins across the board to hold onto their bid.
Scott’s Jots: With the relatively weak field at Ski Town, Space Force could shut out every team they face and still lose the strength bid for the SE if Public Enemy, Slow, or Lawless have a good weekend.
Southwest
- Tower: Very Unsafe
Our only other strength bid holder present at ESC, Tower come in to the weekend with a precarious buffer and minimal results. Buoyed by a one-point loss to BFG, Tower will need to back that up with wins against challengers throughout the weekend, starting with Public Enemy in Pool Play.
Scott’s Jots: Tower are actually in a similar situation to shame. They have seven games that will count, while shame. have just 7, each with one tournament to go. shame. are currently rated seven rankings points higher, but will be playing against a higher-rated field at Pro Champs.
Bid Bubble Challengers
With perennial Nationals attendees outside the bid bubble and a litany of new squads claiming bids, everything in the Mixed Division is as it should be: chaotic and impossible to predict. All that said, I have the job of picking out which teams are still in the hunt for a bid at this point in the season.
Of the recent Nationals attendees, the biggest hopefuls are Slow, Lawless, NOISE, Denver Love Tractor, Mixtape, and ‘Shine. Of this group, every squad except Slow will be at ESC. ‘Shine and Slow make an appearance at Pro Champs in two weeks.
Scott’s Jots: Slow have mostly gained against lower rated teams and lost ground when playing stronger teams, so that doesn’t bode well for their chances when they are playing at Pro Champs, but they could certainly play their way into a bid (although perhaps at the expense of fellow NE teams XIST, Big Rig, or Lexington Sprocket).
Looking at the ESC grouping, Mixtape benefit from two wins over Lawless so far, but have struggled to beat anyone in bid earning territory. If they can perform well in the bracket, Mixtape can earn a bid. Speaking of Lawless, they currently have two wins over bid-earning teams, Tower and XIST, but their two losses to Mixtape are hurting them. If they can avoid Mixtape in the early stages of the bracket, Lawless could find themselves in bid-stealing position. ‘Shine and Love Tractor are similarly hoping to bolster their resumes with wins against bid challengers to complement close losses to current bid earners. Finally, NOISE are hoping to capitalize on quality results like their wins over Hybrid and Space Force to propel them further up the rankings, but they will need a solid ESC to do so. Although they are inactive this weekend, Slow go into Pro Champs hoping to bolster their rating with strong results against secure bid earners Hybrid, Drag’n Thrust, and AMP.
Scott’s Jots: Lawless, NOISE, and Mixtape will all be at ESC, but they each have a lot of ground to make up. Mixtape have the furthest to go, and they have nine games in the books, so their biggest impact may be in their second order effect on Lawless, whom they have played twice. Love Tractor have too much ground to make up and too many games in the books to do anything but act as spoiler. However, ‘Shine (like Rally) are playing both ESC and Pro Champs, so they still have a chance to write the story of their season.
Looking at the other challengers not composed of recent Nationals attendees, the majority of the group will be present at ESC this weekend. Public Enemy are in the strongest position currently. They will likely rise with consistent results since they can drop blowout wins and have better results complementing their 10-9 win over Austin Disco Club. Townies, Storm, and West Chester Loco are all in control of their own destiny. Townies are in a strong pool of Nationals-level squads with Rally, NOISE, and Love Tractor while Storm and Loco find themselves together in Pool D. If any of these teams can upset their way into the bracket, a bid could be waiting for them on the other side. Outside of this group, the biggest challengers come in the form of a solid composition of teams at Northwest Fruit Bowl. With current bid holders BFG and MOONDOG present, strong performances by any of Lotus, Sunshine, or San Francisco Polar Bears could vault them up the rankings. Like the Fruit Bowl contingent, if Seattle Spoke, Athens Murmur, Denver Mile High Trash, or Toronto UNION have another tournament on the schedule and dominate it, they could find their rankings boosting just enough to be on the inside of the bid bubble.
Scott’s Jots: Public Enemy are actually in virtual bid position, with a rating 100 points higher than Disco Club, but only one non-blowout game in the books. They would need an average game rating of about 1680 (results like Mile High Trash, UNION or Townies) to earn a bid. Seems like better than a coin flip. Spoke have a real chance to earn a bid if a couple of teams above them falter. They have enough of a margin on the other teams just below them that are likely also done for the season (Murmur, Mile High Trash, and UNION) for it to hold up to any second order effects. It is hard to see any of these other teams earning a bid. The Townies have the best shot, but they have benefitted by playing a weaker schedule, and so seem more likely to drop rather than rise playing a tougher line up at ESC. Storm, Lotus, Loco, Sunshine, and Polar Bears have too much ground to make up to have a serious chance.
Games with the Biggest Bid Implications at ESC
- Tower v. Public Enemy, Pool A
- Rally v. NOISE, Pool B
- NOISE v. Townies, Pool B
- Mischief v. Mixtape, Pool C
- Mischief v. ‘Shine, Pool C
- Sprocket v. Lawless, Pool D
The entirety of the quarterfinal round and the fifth place bracket, especially if it includes bubble teams.
Men’s Division
Dr. Anna’s Prognosis:
Returning to typical ESC form, the Men’s Division features nine teams in the top 20, representing five of the eight total strength bids. The most secure bid holders present, Atlanta Chain Lightning, only sit 200 points above the bubble while the most precarious, New York Blueprint, are just 30 points above the bubble. Of those in attendance at ESC, the biggest challengers to the bid holders are Amherst Sprout, New Jersey Garden State Ultimate, and Vancouver Furious George. Sprout are the most dangerous, sitting just 30 points outside of the bubble, while Garden State Ultimate and Furious George have to overcome almost a 200-point buffer. Outside of ESC attendees, Salt Lake Shrimp and Golden Fungi hope to slide into bid earning territory with strong performances at Ski Town Classic, but they would need to be essentially perfect to do so. Unlike the other divisions that will come down to the final weekend, the Men’s Division at Pro Champs consists entirely of teams in the top 11 of the rankings. Unless a major slide occurs, bids are unlikely to change hands over Labor Day. That means everything important before Regionals Weekend happens now.
Dr. Scott’s Second Opinion:
Like in the Women’s Division, the Men’s Division’s bids seem pretty set at this point in the season. There is a clear gap between the haves and have-nots, so I expect little if any change. The two teams with the best shot of moving into the bid range are both from the same region as the lowest bid-earning team, so even if who earns the bid changes, the number of bids per region seems likely to remain static. The one change that seems plausible is for the Northeast to steal a bid from the Mid-Atlantic. This would require Virginia Vault to stumble and/or Sprout to excel this weekend. Montreal Mephisto are next in line, but it is unclear whether they are going to get the required 10 games to even be eligible to earn a bid. The rest of the contenders are more than 180 points out of bid contention, a deficit that seems unlikely to be overcome. You could argue that Raleigh-Durham United could also lose the Southeast strength bid with a tough weekend — like Vault they only have 6 games in the books — but they start the weekend 34 points clear of Vault and 80 above Sprout, so a lot would have to go wrong for them to lose their bid.
Current Bid Distribution
- Great Lakes: 1
- Mid-Atlantic: 2
- North Central: 1
- Northeast: 4
- Northwest: 2
- South Central: 2
- Southeast: 3
- Southwest: 1
Strength Bid Safety Ratings
Mid-Atlantic
- Vault: Mostly Unsafe
With just six games on the season so far, Vault are in a similar position to their fellow local squad in the Mixed Division, Rally. With a solid win against New York PoNY and losses to the top of the division in Chicago Machine, Raleigh Ring of Fire, and Austin Doublewide, Vault have a decent resume but minimal results. A 14-11 win over Minneapolis Sub Zero helps, but they will need to perform well in the bracket to hold onto their bid.
Northeast
- PoNY: Mostly Safe
While PoNY haven’t had the dominant season they would’ve hoped for, their 6-5 record gives them a 200-point buffer to the bid window. Coupled with no remaining tournaments, PoNY are in a position similar to Red Flag in Mixed, just watching the action unfold around them.
- Toronto GOAT: Moderately Safe
Like PoNY, GOAT have a solid cushion and no major tournaments remaining. Unlike PoNY, GOAT have a much stronger record of 10-2, but have only played two bid-holding teams, losing to both Doublewide and PoNY.
- Blueprint: Mostly Unsafe
Blueprint are in a precarious position going into ESC. They currently hold just a 30-point buffer between them and Sprout, but lucked out by having a relatively easy path to the bracket. If they want to hold onto their bid, they are going to have to perform well in the championship or fifth-place bracket. Blueprint have proven they can beat bubble teams, including wins over RDU, Sprout, and Garden State Ultimate (twice). They will need to continue this success to hold onto their bid.
Northwest
- Seattle Sockeye: Slightly Unsafe
Sockeye enter ESC as one of the strongest bid holders, but by razor thin margins. Unlike others, they have a quality win against Portland Rhino Slam! (paired with a close loss). For Sockeye to keep their positioning, they will need to get strong wins against the top half of the field.
South Central
- Denver Johnny Bravo: Moderately Safe
With just three total data points to their ranking, Johnny Bravo will rely on a good showing at Pro Champs to solidify their bid earning status. The 2023 semifinalists will hope to use Pro Champs as their true warm-up going into the series.
Southeast
- Chain Lightning: Mostly Safe
In a similar position to Johnny Bravo, Chain Lightning have few results currently but will pair a solid showing at PEC East with an appearance at Pro Champs. Barring a complete meltdown, Chain Lightning will find themselves comfortably within the bid bubble.
- Raleigh-Durham United: Slightly Unsafe
Bolstered by a win against PoNY and close losses to Ring of Fire and Doublewide, RDU sit rather comfortably at 13 even with a razor-thin margin to the bubble. Good results against strong teams improve their chances to maintain their bid, but they have struggled against bid bubble teams so far. A pool play or quarterfinals loss could turn their comfortable perch into a precarious position.
Bid Bubble Challengers
With Pro Champs featuring the strongest teams in the division, the bid picture will be all but finalized following this weekend. Of the challengers, there is a group of four present at ESC and a collection in action elsewhere. Looking at ESC first, Sprout are the biggest challengers. Sitting just 30 points outside of the bubble, Sprout have the opportunity to improve their standing with a pool play matchup against Sub Zero. If they make the championship bracket, a solid showing could push them into strength bid territory. Sprout’s win against a surging Pittsburgh Temper team only further solidifies their positioning. The next grouping of Garden State Ultimate, Furious George, and Eugene Dark Star have a much harder climb into bid territory. All three teams sit more than 150 points outside of bid earning territory. That said, all three teams have the opportunity to immediately improve their standing in pool play. It would take the kind of dominance they haven’t yet shown this season, but the potential is technically there.
Outside of ESC, the biggest challengers include Shrimp and Fungi in action at Ski Town Classic and Temper in action at Cooler Classic. The margins will be thin, but blowout results for any of these three teams over the course of the weekend may be just enough to get their respective regions a bid.
Games with the Biggest Bid Implications at ESC
- Sprout v. Sub Zero, Pool A
- Furious George v. Garden State Ultimate, Pool B
- Furious George v. Chain Lightning, Pool B
- Sockeye v. Blueprint, Pool C
- Raleigh-Durham United v. Vault, Pool D
- Raleigh-Durham United v. Dark Star, Pool D
- Vault v. Dark Star, Pool D
The entirety of the quarterfinal round and the fifth place bracket, especially if it includes bubble teams.
